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Special Features

Central Atlantic Significant Swell: A large area of strong E winds and seas of 9 to 12 ft extend across the central Atlantic from 19N to 29N, E of 55W. These conditions are being generated by a pressure gradient between Azores high pressure and a robust surface trough that extends along 52W from 15N to 25N. The highest seas are associated with near gale-force winds in a corridor near the apex of the trough, from 22N to 26N between 45W and 55W. The trough will continue to move to the W-NW at 20 kt and pass north of the Leeward Islands by mid week. Winds will diminish slightly through the period, but given the long fetch and duration of the winds, this pattern will support seas building to 12 to 13 ft through Mon over an area from 22N to 28N between 45W and 58W. Winds will be moderate to fresh by Wed, but 8-10 ft seas will persist across tropical Atlantic waters east of 60W through late week.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the eastern Atlantic near 08N13W and continues to 06N17W. The ITCZ extends from 06N17W to 03N51W. Scattered moderate convection is depicted from 04N to 07N between 10W and 31W.

Gulf Of America

A cold front extends from near New Orleans, Louisiana, to the Rio Grande. Strong NE winds and 6 to 8 ft seas follow the front. Scattered moderate convection is occurring within 120 nm ahead of the front, to the W of 95W. A surface trough along 88W from 23N to 27N is causing scattered moderate convection within 120 nm of 26N87W, with some locally fresh E winds occurring to the north of the trough over the north central Gulf. Moderate to locally fresh E winds are also occurring in the Florida Straits and adjacent waters offshore NW Cuba. Elsewhere, mainly gentle winds prevail. Seas are 3 to 6 ft across the basin ahead of the aforementioned cold front.

For the forecast, the front is forecast to stall over the northern Gulf Mon night into Tue, when a low pressure will form off Texas and move NE across the southeast U.S. Into the northwest Atlantic. Thereafter, the front will move southeastward farther into the basin, but then stall again over the central Gulf through mid- week, as another low forms over South Texas. Looking ahead, expect fresh southerly flow over the western Gulf as the low pressure moves northeastward.

Caribbean Sea

Scattered moderate convection is noted within 120 nm of either side of the axis of the eastern extension of the East Pacific monsoon trough which is noted along 10N to the W of the Colombian coast. Otherwise, moderate trades prevail over most of the basin, except for fresh NE to E winds funneling through the Windward Passage. Moderate seas dominate most of the basin, with slight seas in the NW basin.

For the forecast, high pressure over the western Atlantic will support moderate to fresh trade winds across most of the basin through the early part of the week. Winds and seas will diminish by mid week as the high shifts east. Looking ahead, expect fresh NE to E winds again over the north-central Caribbean and off Colombia by late Thu as high pressure builds over the eastern U.S.

Atlantic Ocean

Please see the Special Features section for information on Significant Swell in the Central Atlantic.

A stationary front extends from just E of Bermuda to the northern Bahamas. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection has increased this afternoon in association with this boundary, and is impacting waters N of the Turks and Caicos between 65W and 73W. Winds on both sides of the front are mainly moderate to fresh, with moderate seas impacting Atlantic waters E of 60W. For waters to the east, much of the area is being impacted by the surface trough generating the winds and subsequent significant swell, as described in the Special Features Section above. Just south of the region of significant winds and seas, scattered moderate convection has initiated in broadly divergent upper-level wind flow from 15N to 20N between 30W and 45W. For the remainder of the waters, particularly the deep tropics E of the Lesser Antilles, moderate seas and moderate to fresh trades prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, the stationary front will dissipate tonight, and high pressure north of the front will shift eastward, allowing winds and seas to diminish. Another weak front will stall off the northeast Florida coast by Mon, then lift northward Mon night. Expect fresh to strong southerly winds and building seas north of 28N and west of 74W late Mon and Tue as low pressure moves from the northern Gulf to the Carolinas. Looking ahead, these southerly winds will shift eastward Tue night into Wed, north of 28N ahead of a cold front moving off the northeast Florida coast Tue night. This front will reach from near Bermuda to South Florida on Wed, and from 31N60W to central Cuba by late Thu. Meanwhile, strong winds and rough seas will accompany a trough moving westward into the waters NE of the Leeward Islands through Tue. Then, the trough will pass just N of Puerto Rico on Wed.

Posted 22 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Konarik