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Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 11N15W and continues southwestward to 09N19W, where it transitions to the ITCZ and continues to 10N32W to 07N58W. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 02N to 07N between 10W and 22W, and from 07N to 09N between 45W and 50W.

Gulf Of America

A 1020 mb high pressure is centered near 27N89W while a frontal boundary has reached the northern Gulf. The front extends from the western Florida Panhandle to inland south Texas, where it becomes a stationary front. Satellite pictures show scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms near the front over Texas. Under this weather pattern, gentle to moderate N to NE winds are noted behind the front. Mostly light to gentle winds are S of front, except for gentle to moderate northeast to east winds south of about 24N and east of 94W. Seas are generally 2 to 4 ft, except for lower seas of 1 to 2 ft in the NE Gulf. Patches of fog, some dense, are along and just offshore the Florida Big Bend coast. A dense fog advisory is in effect in this area until 4 pm this afternoon.

For the forecast, the aforementioned frontal boundary will lift northeastward as a warm front later today as a low pressure develops near the Texas and Oklahoma panhandles. Expect fresh southerly flow off the Texas coast tonight through Mon night supported by the gradient between low pressure over northeast Mexico and high pressure off the Carolinas. These winds will diminish Tue ahead of a frontal boundary that will be nearing the coast of Texas. A stronger reinforcing cold front will overtake the frontal boundary early Wed while emerging out over the northwest Gulf. The cold front will then sweep to the southeast of the basin by late Thu, followed by fresh to strong northeast winds and building seas. Scattered showers and thunderstorms may accompany the initial frontal boundary.

Caribbean Sea

The combination between high pressure north of the area over the western Atlantic and relatively lower pressure over northern Colombian is resulting in fresh to strong trade winds over most of the central Caribbean as noted in recent scatterometer data. The strongest winds of 25 to 30 kt are offshore Colombia where seas are in the 8 to 10 ft range. Moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas are noted over the remainder of the basin. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are occurring from eastern Honduras to western Panama. Gusty winds are possible with this activity as it may linger into late tonight. Abundant tropical moisture in place, combined with an upper-level low spinning over Nicaragua supports this convection.

For the forecast, fresh to strong northeast to east winds will pulse offshore of northern Colombia each night and morning well into the upcoming week due to the pressure gradient resulting from the combination of high pressure over the western Atlantic and relatively lower pressures over northern Colombia and the south- central Caribbean. Rough seas can be expected with these winds. Elsewhere, the gradient will also support moderate to fresh trade winds along with moderate seas over the remainder of the basin through the period.

Atlantic Ocean

High pressure dominates the western Atlantic, with a 1020 mb high pressure situated just N of the NW Bahamas. Recent scatterometer data depict moderate northeast to east winds south of about 23N west of 71W, including through the passages of the Bahama Islands. These winds reach to along the coast of Cuba and through the Straits of Florida. Fresh northeast winds are in the Windward Passage as also seen in the scatterometer satellite data passes.

Over the central Atlantic, a persistent trough extends from near 31N47W to 20N52W. An upper-level trough is providing upper support for this feature. An area of showers, with embedded thunderstorms remains associated with this trough. The pressure gradient between strong high pressure of 1031 mb centered just E of the Azores and relatively lower pressures over NW Africa is sustaining mostly fresh northeast to east winds north of about 28N and east of 24W, including waters to the north of the Canary Islands. Seas of 8 to 10 ft in NE swell are over this area based on altimeter data. Moderate to fresh southeast to south winds are north of 22N and E of the aforementioned trough to about 40W. Moderate to rough seas are with these winds. Otherwise, mostly moderate to fresh trades, with moderate seas are present across the remainder of the tropical Atlantic.

For the forecast west of 55W, weak high pressure off east-central Florida will shift southeastward and dissipate through early Mon in response to a cold front that will move off the northeast Florida coast this morning. The front will reach from near Bermuda to Sebastian Inlet, Florida by early Mon. The eastern portion of the front will continue eastward and reach from 30N55W to 27N70W by early Tue, while the portion west of 70W starts to lift back north as a warm front. High pressure will shift eastward off the Mid-Atlantic coast during the week, with its related gradient supporting moderate to fresh northeast to east winds and moderate seas over the region, with large northwest swell following the front southeast of Bermuda. Looking ahead, winds and seas will diminish west of 70W by Wed, ahead of front expected to move off the northeast Florida coast early Thu. The front will reach from Bermuda to the Straits of Florida by late Thu night, followed by fresh northeast winds and building seas.

Posted 0 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Gr