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Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the Gambia coast, then runs southwestward to 07N21W. An ITCZ continues westward from 07N21W across 06N35W to 09N52W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is occurring near and south of the monsoon trough and part of the ITCZ from 03N to 10N between the Sierra Leone/Liberia coast and 22W. Widely scattered moderate convection is seen near and up to 120 nm north of the rest of the ITCZ.

Enhanced by an upper-level trough, the eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering scattered heavy showers and isolated thunderstorms across the Caribbean waters near Costa Rica, Panama and northwestern Colombia.

Gulf Of America

A surface trough is causing scattered showers at the central Gulf. Otherwise, a surface ridge related to a 1022 mb high over the Florida Panhandle continues to dominate the Gulf. Light to gentle winds and 1 to 2 ft seas are found at the northeastern Gulf. Moderate to fresh SSE winds and seas at 4 to 5 ft are present off the southern Texas and northeastern Mexico. Gentle to moderate with locally fresh ESE to SE winds and 2 to 4 ft seas prevail for the rest of the Gulf.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh NE to E winds will pulse offshore of the Yucatan Peninsula and into the Bay of Campeche each afternoon and evening into next week as a trough develops each day and moves westward. Elsewhere in the Gulf, moderate to occasionally fresh E to SE winds and slight to moderate seas are expected through Fri as ridging prevails over the southeastern United States. Looking ahead, fresh SE winds will develop in the northwestern Gulf Sun into next week as a low pressure system moves through the southern United States.

Caribbean Sea

A surface trough is producing widely scattered showers near and south of Hispaniola. Convergent trade winds are coupling with divergent flow aloft to generate scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over Trinidad and Tobago, and near the southern Windward Islands. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional convection in the Caribbean Sea. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds and seas at 5 to 9 ft are found across the western basin, including the Gulf of Honduras. Gentle to moderate ENE to E winds and 3 to 5 ft seas are noted in the central and eastern basin.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh trade winds will occur over the basin into next week as low pressure anchors over the south- central basin and high pressure prevails north of the region. Pulsing strong winds and locally rough seas are expected offshore of northern Colombia each night and morning from Sat into next week.

Atlantic Ocean

A stationary front curves southwestward from a 1016 mb low near 33N54W across 31N56W to 28N68W. A surface trough extends southward from this low across 31N54W to 21N56W. Scattered moderate convection is evident near and up to 150 nm north of the front, and near and up to 175 nm east of the trough. A surface trough is bringing similar convection near the southeast Bahamas, and Turks and Caicos Islands. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section at the beginning for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin.

Gentle to locally moderate NW to NE winds and seas at 3 to 6 ft are found north of 20N between 55W and the Florida/southern Georgia coast. To the east, moderate to fresh ENE to SE winds and seas of 6 to 9 ft dominate north of 20N between 35W and 55W. For the tropical Atlantic from 05N to 20N between 35W and the Lesser Antilles, gentle to moderate ESE to E winds and 5 to 6 ft seas are found. For the remainder of the Atlantic Basin west of 35W, gentle with locally moderate ESE to SSE winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft in mixed moderate swells prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, moderate to fresh NE winds will occur north of the Greater Antilles and through the southern and central Bahamas into early Sat as high pressure prevails to the north and low pressure anchors over the south-central Caribbean. Elsewhere, moderate to locally fresh SW to W winds are expected north of 29N and west of 65W, including offshore of northern Florida, by Sat as a cold front moves off the east coast of the U.S. The front is slated to enter the Atlantic waters east of Florida on Sun, leading to moderate N to NE winds and building seas in the wake of the front.

Posted 11 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Chan