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Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic near 11N15W and continues southwestward to 09N18W, where it transitions to the ITCZ to 09N30W to 07N40W to 09N50W and to 07N58W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 04N to 10N between 10W and 20W, and from 04N to 12N between 20W and 31W.

Gulf Of America

Relatively weak high pressure extends from the western Atlantic to across Florida into the Gulf region. Its related pressure gradient is generally allowing for mostly light to gentle anticyclonic winds across the basin, except for gentle to moderate northeast to east winds south of about 23N and east of 94W. Seas are in general 2 to 4 ft, except 1 to 2 ft in the NE Gulf. A frontal boundary is near the coast of Texas generating scattered showers and thunderstorms.

For the forecast, a weak cold front will move into the northern Gulf late today, stall late Sun and Mon, then lift northward Tue. Patchy fog over the northwest Gulf ahead of the front will dissipate later today. Expect fresh southerly flow off the Texas coast Sun night through Mon night between low pressure over northeast Mexico and high pressure over the Carolinas. These winds will diminish Tue ahead of another front moving across the southern Plains. Looking ahead, this stronger front will move into the northwest Gulf Wed, followed by fresh NE winds and building seas.

Caribbean Sea

The combination between high pressure north of the area over the western Atlantic and the Colombian low is resulting in fresh to strong trade winds over most of the central Caribbean as captured by a recent scatterometer pass. Seas are 6 to 8 ft with these winds. Moderate to locally fresh winds and moderate seas are noted over the remainder of the basin.

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are observed over the southwestern section of the sea, where the East Pacific monsoon trough extends across the region. Low-topped trade wind showers are seen elsewhere, with some thunderstorm activity offshore NE Honduras.

For the forecast, fresh to strong northeast to east winds will pulse offshore of northern Colombia each night and morning through the middle of next week as low pressure prevails over the south- central Caribbean. These winds will bring rough seas to the waters near northwest Colombia. Elsewhere, high pressure centered over the western Atlantic will support moderate to fresh trade winds and moderate seas over the rest of the basin through early next week.

Atlantic Ocean

A cold front is anaylzed from near 31N59W southwestward to 26N67W. No significant convection is seen in association with this front. Mainly light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas are on either side of the front. Otherwise, high pressure dominates the remainder of the western Atlantic, with a 1021 mb high pressure situated near the NW Bahamas. Recent scatterometer satellite data passes depict moderate to locally fresh northeast to east winds south of about 23N west of 71W, including through the passages of the Bahama Islands. These winds reach to along the coast of Cuba and through the Straits of Florida.

Over the central Atlantic, a trough extends from near 31N50W to a 1015 mb low pressure located near 27N53W to 19N55W. An upper-level low dropping southward is near 26N53W. This feature is providing upper support for the low/trough. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are E of the trough axis to about 44W. The pressure gradient between strong high pressure of 1034 mb situated to the northeast of the Azores and lower pressures over NW Africa is producing an area of fresh to strong northeast to east winds N of 27N and east of 30W, including the N waters of the Canary Islands. Seas of 8 to 10 ft in northeast to east swell are over this area. Moderate to fresh southeast to south winds are north of 25N between 40 and 45W or between the the trough and the SW periphery of the Azores high pressure. Seas are 8 to 10 ft with these winds. Otherwise, mostly moderate to fresh trades, with moderate seas are present over the rest of the tropical Atlantic.

For the forecast west of 55W, a cold front southeast of Bermuda will shift eastward today, then stall and dissipate through Sun. High pressure over the northern Bahamas will dissipate through Sun, ahead of another weak cold front that will move off the northeast Florida coast early Sun. The front will reach from Bermuda to Sebastian Inlet, Florida by early Mon. The eastern portion of the front will continue eastward and reach from 30N55W to 27N70W by early Tue, while the portion west of 70W starts to lift northward. High pressure will build north of the front off the Carolina coast, supporting moderate to fresh NE to E winds and moderate seas across the region, with large NW swell following the front southeast of Bermuda. Looking ahead, winds and seas will diminish west of 70W by Wed, ahead of an approaching front over the southeast U.S.

Posted 3 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Gr