Special Features

Significant Rainfall over Central America/Western Caribbean: The interaction between a couple of tropical waves and abundant tropical moisture over the same area will continue to trigger deep convection capable of producing heavy rain across the western Caribbean and parts of central America through Friday. This will increase the potential for flash flooding and mudslide, especially in hilly terrains. In addition, divergent flow aloft will also increases the chance of strong thunderstorms with dangerous lightning and gusty winds. The heaviest rainfall is expected to be near the east of coast of northern Nicaragua, Honduras, Guatemala and Belize. Please refer to the local Weather Services in the region for more information.

Tropical Waves

A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave is analyzed with axis along 28W and S of 14N, moving west around 15 kt. No significant convection is associated with this tropical wave.

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is is analyzed with axis along 43W from 15N southward, moving west around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted along the wave axis.

A central Caribbean tropical wave is near 78W and south of 17N, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. The convection related to this wave is located over the East Pacific waters.

A western Caribbean tropical wave is near 86W and south of 19N, moving westward at 5 to 10 kt. Aided by divergent flow aloft, scattered to numerous moderate to strong convection prevails S of 20N between 79W-86W.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 19N16W to 10N29W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 10N40W. The ITCZ resumes W of a tropical wave near 09N45W to 07N57W. Scattered moderate convection is noted along both sections of the ITCZ.

Gulf Of America

Two surface troughs are triggering scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms off the Florida west coast, and at the southern Bay of Campeche. Otherwise, a 1019 mb high at the northeastern Gulf is dominating the rest of the Gulf. Moderate to fresh ENE to E winds and moderate seas are evident at the eastern Bay of Campeche. Light to gentle winds with slight seas prevail at the northeastern and east-central Gulf. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds and slight seas prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, surface ridge will continue to dominate the Gulf waters through early next week. Fresh to strong NE to E winds will pulse each evening and night over the next several days north of the Yucatan Peninsula and in the eastern Bay of Campeche due to local effects induced by a thermal trough. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds and slight to moderate seas are expected elsewhere through early next week.

Caribbean Sea

Refer to the Special Features section about potential heavy rainfall in the western Caribbean, and the Tropical Waves section for convection in the entire Caribbean Sea.

Strong with near-gale E winds and rough seas dominate the south- central basin. Fresh to strong E winds with moderate seas are elsewhere across the central portion of the basin. Light to gentle winds and slight seas in moderate NE swell prevail near Costa Rica and Panama. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds and moderate seas prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea, including the Windward and Mona Passages.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Atlantic ridge and lower pressure in the SW Caribbean associated with the E Pacific monsoon and the passage of a couple of tropical waves will continue to support fresh to strong trades across most of the central and SW Caribbean through the end of the week. Winds are expected to reach near-gale force off Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela, with moderate to rough seas. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas will prevail. Strong winds over the Gulf of Honduras will develop today and continue through the weekend due to a tighter pressure gradient between the Atlantic ridge, and a broad area of low pressure over the eastern Pacific region, offshore of Central America and Southern Mexico.

Atlantic Ocean

Two tropical waves are moving across the basin. Refer to the section above for details.

A surface trough near the Bahamas is joining forces with an upper-level low over Florida to produce scattered moderate convection off the Florida west coast, and over the Bahamas. Farther east, another upper-level low near 28N55W is causing isolated thunderstorms north of 25N between 53W and 60W.

A subtropical ridge extending from a 1027 mb high across 34N32W to a 1021 mb high near 27N64W is supporting gentle winds with moderate seas north of 26N between 50W and the Florida-southern Georgia coast. Farther east, gentle to moderate ENE to SE winds and moderate seas are present north of 26N between 35W and 50W. To the south from 08N to 26N between 35W and the Bahamas/Lesser Antilles, moderate to fresh NE to ESE winds with moderate to rough seas are noted. Gentle with moderate E to SE winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft in mixed moderate swells prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin west of 35W.

For the forecast west of 55W, the Bermuda High and associated ridge will prevail across the region through early next week, supporting moderate to fresh E to SE winds and moderate seas S of 25N. Gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas are expected elsewhere. Otherwise, fresh to strong E winds will pulse late in the afternoons and at night N of Hispaniola through early next week.

Posted 3 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Era