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Special Features

Significant Rainfall over Central America: A cold front currently extends over the central Bahamas, Cuba, the Caribbean, Belize, Honduras, and Guatemala. This front will continue to support strong and moist onshore flow, particularly into the northern coast of Honduras, bringing precipitation through Thu. Scattered moderate to strong convection is occurring in the southwestern Caribbean, generally west of 75W and south of 20N. As the frontal system continues its progression through the Atlantic, the low-level flow regime is expected to shift from a NE flow to an E flow, and will begin to inject moisture farther north into Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula beginning on Wed. An activation of the Panamanian low will continue advecting moisture into southeast Nicaragua, and the Atlantic coasts of Costa Rica and Panama through Thu evening. Orographic enhancement will aid in increasing total precipitation. Significant rainfall in excess of 6 inches over the course of several days will be possible during this period with local amounts of 8 to 12 inches possible over northern Honduras, and is likely to result in life-threatening flash flooding and landslides. This information was provided by the International Desk at the Weather Prediction Center.

Please refer to your local meteorological service for more details.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough remains over West Africa. The ITCZ enters the Atlantic near 12N16W and continues to 05N52W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 11N to 14N between 18W and 21W.

Gulf Of America

Ridging extends over the basin as a 1030 mb high strengthens in the Deep South of the U.S., and a 1028 mb high persists over Tampico, Mexico. A strong pressure gradient between this ridge and a cold front moving through the western Atlantic is supporting fresh to strong NE winds over the southeastern Gulf, as observed via earlier scatterometer satellite data. Earlier ship and buoy data showed rough seas continue over this region, with one ship reporting very rough seas just north of the Yucatan Channel. Fresh NW winds also prevail in the southwestern basin offshore of Veracruz. Over the northwestern Gulf, gentle to locally moderate E to SE winds and 2 to 5 ft seas are noted.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between a cold front located SE of the area and a 1030 mb high pressure centered over the SE of the United States supports fresh to strong N to NE winds over the eastern half of the Gulf. These winds will diminish by tonight as the high pressure weakens and moves to north Florida. At the same time, moderate to locally fresh southerly return flow is expected over the NW Gulf. Then, high pressure will remain in control of the weather pattern across the Gulf region toward the end of the week producing a gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow.

Caribbean Sea

Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on the significant rainfall event expected across Central America and adjacent waters during the next few days.

A strong cold front extends from southeastern Cuba through northeastern Honduras. Earlier scatterometer satellite data showed widespread strong to near-gale force NE winds are occurring in the wake of the front from the lee of Cuba through the Yucatan Channel and Gulf of Honduras. Rapidly building seas are occurring in this region, with very rough seas of 10 to 12 ft offshore of Belize and Honduras. Widespread moderate to fresh trade winds prevail over the rest of the basin as high pressure builds north of the area in the wake of the front. Recent altimeter and buoy data show 5 to 7 ft seas over this region, with seas 7 to 8 ft over much of the southwest Caribbean between Jamaica and Colombia.

For the forecast, the aforementioned cold front will stall from the Windward Passage to near Cabo Gracias a Dios, Nicaragua by this evening, then remain nearly stationary over the NW Caribbean through Fri while gradually weakening. The front will continue to support the development of showers and thunderstorms over the NW Caribbean, the Yucatan Peninsula and parts of Central America through at least Thu. Fresh to strong winds and rough seas will prevail in the south-central Caribbean through Wed night.

Atlantic Ocean

A strong cold front extends from near Bermuda to the southern Bahamas and eastern Cuba. A few showers and thunderstorms are active along the front north of 25N. While winds have diminished below gale force along the front, strong to near- gale force N to NE winds persist within 300 nm west of the front, along with 12 to 17 ft seas. Moderate N winds and 7 to 12 ft seas are noted elsewhere west of front.

Farther east, a weak 1017 mb low is centered near 28N43W. A frontal boundary reaches from near Portugal to this low pressure system to 28N50W. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds and 7 to 8 ft seas are noted north of the front. Weak ridging persist elsewhere, supporting moderate trade winds and 4 to 6 ft seas.

For the forecast west of 55W, the front is forecast to reach from 31N61W to the Windward Passage by this evening, then stall from 31N55W to eastern Cuba on Wed. Gale force winds and rough to very rough seas are noted in the wake of the front. Gale conditions are forecast to end by tonight. As the front stalls and weakens, winds will continue to diminish to moderate to fresh speeds on Wed, but rough seas in NW swell will persist in the wake of the front through Wed night. Looking ahead, a reinforcing cold front will move across the N waters on Fri.

Posted 2 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Christensen