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Special Features

Gulf of America Gale Warning: A strong cold front is entering the NW Gulf and will shift quickly across the basin through Sun night, producing strong to near-gale northerly winds and rough to very rough seas behind it. Gale-force winds are expected offshore of Tampico Sun and offshore of Veracruz Sun afternoon and night. Seas offshore Tampico are expected to build to 12 to 14 ft while seas offshore Veracruz are forecast to build to 14 to 16 ft. A Gale Warning is also in effect for the coastal waters from the western Florida Panhandle all the way to south Texas. Gusty winds of 35 to 40 kt are expected in these waters in the wake of the front. Winds and seas should gradually subside from NW to SE Mon through Tue as high pressure builds across the Gulf region behind the cold front.

Atlantic Gale Warning: This same strong cold front moving through the Gulf of America this weekend will push offshore of the southeastern U.S. Sun, with strong to gale force NW winds and rapidly building seas behind the front through early Mon. Seas during this time will build 12 to 15 ft. The front is expected to reach from near Bermuda to eastern Cuba Mon, and from 31N60W to the Dominican Republic Tue, while weakening. The front will stall from 29N55W to the Mona Passage Wed.

Please read the latest NWS High Seas issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more information

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough remains inland over Africa. The ITCZ extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near 08N13W and continues SW to the coast of Brazil near 02S44W. Scattered moderate convection is noted S of 03N between 30W and 40W.

Gulf Of America

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information about a GALE WARNING.

As of 21Z, a cold front is entering the NW Gulf and extends from SW Louisiana to south Texas and NE Mexico. High pressure centered over the western Atlantic extends a ridge across Florida into the Gulf region. Under this weather pattern, a gentle to moderate SE return flow across is noted ahead of the front. Seas are in general 3 to 6 ft, except 1 to 3 ft offshore Florida to about 85W. The SE return flow is lifting smoke from agricultural fires in SE Mexico northward, producing hazy skies W of 90W.

For the forecast, a strong cold front moving across the Gulf of America will bring strong to gale-force winds and very rough seas. Please, see the Special features section for more information.

Caribbean Sea

The pressure gradient between high pressure N of the area and lower pressure over Colombia is currently supporting strong to near-gale force tradewinds in the south-central Caribbean. These winds were well-sampled by the most recent satellite derived wind data. The persistence of these near-gale force wind speeds and fresh to strong trades elsewhere across the central Caribbean has resulted in 8 to 11 ft seas in the south-central Caribbean off the coast of Colombia. Elsewhere across the basin, seas are 4 to 7 ft with moderate to locally fresh trades, except in the Gulf of Honduras where fresh to strong SE winds prevail. Seas are 6 to 8 ft within these winds.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between an Atlantic ridge along 25N and the Colombian low will support fresh to strong trade winds across the south-central Caribbean through Sun, before diminishing. Winds will reach near-gale force tonight offshore of Colombia. Farther east, rough seas will linger E of the Lesser Antilles through tonight as N swell progresses across the central tropical Atlantic. A strong cold front will enter the northwestern Caribbean Sun night, then extend from NW Haiti to near the Nicaragua-Costa Rica border by late Mon night. Expect strong N winds and rapidly building seas behind this front.

Atlantic Ocean

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information about a GALE WARNING.

A ridge dominates the Atlantic forecast waters, with 1019 mb high pressure centered near 27N70W and another 1019 mb high pressure located near 24N52W. Gentle to moderate easterly winds and moderate seas are noted around the southern periphery of the ridge W of 45W. Moderate to locally fresh trades dominate the tropical Atlantic, with seas in the 6 to 8 ft range. Decaying NW swell is producing rough seas to 9 ft north of 20N and east of 35W. The pressure gradient tightens between the ridge and frontal boundaries located just N of 31N resulting in fresh westerly winds and rough seas roughly between 50W and 60W. Farther E, fresh to locally strong NE winds are seen between the Canary Islands due to the pressure gradient between a 1030 mb high pressure situated W of Portugal and a trough over NW Africa.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned ridge extending from the central Atlantic along 25N to the NW Bahamas will shift slowly eastward through the weekend, allowing a strong cold front to push offshore of the southeastern U.S. Sun, with strong to gale force NW winds and rapidly building seas behind it. Please, see the Special features section for more information.

Posted 3 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Gr