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Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough remains inland over the African continent. The ITCZ extends westward from the coast of Sierra Leone near 08N13W to the coast of Guyana near 07N59W. Scattered moderate convection is from 09N to 14N between 27W and 49W, and from 05N to 09N between 15W and 35W.

The extension of the East Pacific monsoon trough is enhancing scattered moderate convection in the SW Caribbean from the coast of Panama north to 13N between 74W and 82W.

Gulf Of America

Strong high pressure continues to build across the Gulf in the wake of the cold front that exited the basin earlier this morning. Recent scatterometer and surface observations indicate fresh to strong NE winds across the basin, including within the Straits of Florida and the Yucatan Channel. Seas of 8-10 ft are across the basin south of 26N, including within the Straits of Florida and the Yucatan Channel. North of 26N, seas are 4-7 ft.

For the forecast, winds will diminish tonight as high pressure settles into the region, but fresh to strong southerly flow will develop in the NW Gulf Sat ahead of the next cold front. This front will move offshore Texas late Sat night, then stall over the NW basin through Mon before moving SE through the Gulf Mon night and Tue.

Caribbean Sea

A cold front extends from central Cuba to northern Belize. The latest satellite scatterometer data shows fresh to strong NE winds north of the front in the far NW Caribbean, including within the Yucatan Channel. Seas are analyzed as 8-10 ft north of the front, including within the Yucatan Channel. Scattered showers are along the frontal boundary. Ahead of the front, the pressure gradient between high pressure over the central Atlantic and lower pressure over Colombia continues to support fresh to strong trades and 8-10 ft seas across the central Caribbean. Elsewhere, trades are mainly moderate with 4-7 ft seas.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure over the central Atlantic and lower pressure over the SW Caribbean will sustain strong trades over the SW and south-central Caribbean, including the Gulf of Venezuela, today. Moderate to fresh trades are expected elsewhere in the eastern and central basin through Sun. A cold front extending from western Cuba to the NE Yucatan Peninsula is followed by fresh to strong NE winds and rough seas. The front is expected to stall from central Cuba to the Yucatan Peninsula this evening, then gradually lift N of the area on Sat. A very weak pressure gradient across the region Mon and Tue will lead to tranquil marine conditions.

Atlantic Ocean

A cold front extends from 31N68W across the central Bahamas to central Cuba. Recent satellite scatterometer data shows moderate to fresh NW to N winds west of the front. Seas are 4-7 ft behind the front, and scattered showers are along the frontal boundary. Aside from a decaying stationary front and some weak surface troughs in the central Atlantic, the basin is dominated by high pressure centered just west of the Azores. Trades are gentle to moderate, with 4-7 ft seas in open waters.

For the forecast west of 55W, the western Atlantic cold front will drift SE through tonight, then stall Sat and dissipate by Sun. A tight pressure gradient in the wake of the front will produce increasing NE winds across much of the forecast area Sat, diminishing from west to east Sun. Fresh to strong SE winds will develop across the N and central Florida offshore waters Mon night ahead of the next cold front forecast to come off the NE Florida coast Tue night.

Posted 2 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Mahoney