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Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough remains inland over Africa. The ITCZ extends from 06N17W to 04N33W to 03N46W. Scattered moderate convection is from 02N to 09N between 09W and 31W.

Gulf Of America

Weak high pressure of 1017 mb is centered over the central-eastern Gulf just offshore Tampa Bay. Over the western basin, a surface trough lingers from 27N91W to 22N90W. A weak pressure gradient across the region supports mainly light to gentle variable winds, except for moderate southerly winds W of 95W and moderate SW winds along the NE Gulf coastal waters. Seas are slight to 3 ft basin- wide.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds will dominate the basin as high pressure remains centered in the SE Gulf into Mon. The ridge will move slightly east early next week, allowing southeasterly winds to become more dominant, reaching fresh to strong speeds across the western Gulf by Wed night into Thu. Moderate to locally rough seas are expected with these winds.

Caribbean Sea

A few showers and thunderstorms are along the monsoon trough over the Costa Rica and Panama offshore waters. The other feature in the basin is a surface trough extending from the Youth Island, Cuba to the E Gulf of Honduras, which is generating isolated showers. Otherwise, a weak pressure gradient is supporting gentle to locally moderate trades and slight seas to 3 ft. Moderate NE winds are also in the lee side of Cuba and the Windward Passage.

For the forecast, fresh NE to E winds S of Cuba and offshore Colombia will diminish tonight as a weak pressure gradient takes hold over the basin. This will result in an extended period of mainly gentle to moderate trade winds across the basin for the first half of next week. Long period NE swell will propagate across the NE Caribbean and waters E of the Lesser Antilles into Mon.

Atlantic Ocean

A cold front extends from 26N55W to N of Hispaniola with scattered showers and thunderstorms extending within 210 nm ahead of the boundary. A weak surface ridge is building over the SW N Atlantic waters in the wake of the front, which is supporting mainly light to gentle variable winds S of 29N. Southwest to west winds are ongoing N of 29N across the offshore waters behind the front. The front is also followed by rough seas to 10 ft in NW swell N of 27N. A stronger ridge anchored by a 1022 mb high near 27N28W covers the remainder central and eastern subtropical Atlantic waters. A tighter pressure gradient supports moderate to fresh NE to E winds S of 24N and E of 40W. Southwest winds of the same speed are ahead of the cold front N of 26N to 36W. Seas with these winds are rough to 9 ft in N swell.

For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front will stall Sun from near 24N55W to the Windward Passage, where it will gradually dissipate into Mon. Expect fresh to strong SW to W winds and building seas across the waters N of 29N tonight into Sun, ahead of a cold front forecast to reach the N part of the forecast region Mon. The front will reach from 31N60W to just N of the NW Bahamas on Tue.

Posted 2 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Ramos