Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic near 12N16W and extends to 06N20W. The ITCZ continues from 06N20W to 01N50W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is noted S of the monsoon trough, E of 16W, offshore the coasts of Liberia and Cote d'Ivoire.

Gulf Of America

Ridging extends over the Gulf of America, supporting moderate to fresh E to SE winds over much of the Gulf S of 27N, with moderate or weaker winds elsewhere. Seas are generally 3 to 6 ft, with the exception of the waters just offshore the northern Yucatan Peninsula, where some seas of up to 7 ft are likely. Convection that had been over the NW Gulf has dissipated early this morning.

For the forecast, high pressure ridging just NE of the Gulf will bring mainly gentle SE winds and relatively tranquil marine conditions to the NE half of the basin into the start of next week. The southern and western Gulf will experience moderate to fresh east to southeast winds during this same period, locally pulsing to strong off the NW Yucatan Peninsula each tonight and Fri night as a diurnal trough affects the waters.

Caribbean Sea

Moderate to locally fresh NE winds are occurring through the Windward Passage, as well as offshore of northwestern Colombia, as the result of a pressure gradient between high pressure to the north and a 1009 mb low over northwestern Colombia. Seas of 4 to 6 ft are noted in the central Caribbean in association with these winds. A surface trough extends from 21N57W through the Lesser Antilles to about 12N63W. Scattered moderate convection has developed over the Windward Islands in association with this trough. Otherwise, gentle to moderate trade winds and seas of 2 to 5 ft prevail across the rest of the basin.

For the forecast, high pressure ridging north of the basin will support pulsing fresh NE winds in the Windward Passage, south of Cuba, and offshore Colombia at night into the weekend. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail elsewhere into early next week.

Atlantic Ocean

A surface trough extends from 31N58W southwestward to the Virgin Islands, while ridging extends from a 1029 mb high centered north of the area. Another surface trough extends from the Lesser Antilles to about 21N57W. The pressure gradient between these features is supporting fresh to locally strong NE winds occurring from 60W to 75W, generally north of 20N. Rough seas of 8 to 10 prevail in this region from 23N, northward, between 53W and 70W. A relatively broad zone of scattered moderate convection where deep layer lift and moisture are occurring extends from 13N to 25N between 50W and 60W.

Otherwise, fresh NE winds continue over the Bahamas, Greater Antilles, and Straits of Florida. Moderate winds are elsewhere west of the Leeward Islands trough. To the east of both surface troughs, widespread moderate to fresh trade winds dominate those waters with seas of 5 to 8 ft.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned troughs will remain relatively stationary through Fri, causing the higher winds and seas to continue. Winds should should diminish by the weekend as the pressure gradient relaxes. Looking ahead, a cold front may move southward, between Florida and 65W, late Sunday into Monday followed by moderate to fresh N to NE winds.

Posted 4 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Konarik