..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ,

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 06N11W and extends westward to 05N15W. The ITCZ continues from 05N15W to 02N40W. Scattered moderate convection is depicted from 02N to 07N between 40W and 47W.

Gulf Of Mexico

A NW-to-SE oriented surface trough is along 22N97W and 19N94W. This trough is producing isolated showers across the western Gulf. A broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the remainder of the Gulf of Mexico sustaining gentle to moderate winds and seas 2 to 5 ft across the entire basin.

For the forecast, a ridge extends from the SE of United States into the Gulf waters. Under the influence of this system, mainly gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail through Wed. A weak cold front will reach the NW Gulf of Mexico by Wed afternoon and dissipate over the northern Gulf by early Thu. Looking ahead, building high pressure over the south- central United States, in the wake of the front, will lead to moderate N to NE winds and slight to moderate seas across the basin Thu through Sat. Then, gentle to moderate easterly winds are expected on Sun.

Caribbean Sea

Scattered moderate convection is depicted over the Gulf of Honduras in association to a NW- to- SE oriented surface trough that curves from Belize to eastern Honduras, to 15N83W to 12N82W. Moderate NE to E winds are occurring to the east of the trough in the northwestern Caribbean, where seas of 4 to 5 ft. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh E winds are occurring across central through southeastern portions of the basin, with light to gentle winds occurring in the southwestern Caribbean. Seas of 3 to 6 ft are noted in the aforementioned areas.

For the forecast, high pressure N of the area combined with the Colombian low will support fresh to strong winds and moderate to rough seas across the central Caribbean beginning tonight through Thu night. The highest seas are expected near the coast of Colombia. As the high pressure over the Atlantic moves eastward, expect fresh winds over the NE Caribbean tonight through Thu, with moderate to rough seas in NE swell across the Atlantic passages. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh winds and slight to moderate seas are expected, with the exception of gentle to moderate NE to E winds in the NW Caribbean. A building ridge over the NW Caribbean will support moderate to locally fresh N to NE winds Fri through Sun.

Atlantic Ocean

The pressure gradient between high pressure of 1034 mb located NE of Bermuda and a low-level trough over the SE Bahamas and eastern Cuba continues to support fresh to strong E winds and rough seas N and E of the Bahamas to about 27N and 64W. Scattered moderate convection is also found east of the Bahamas. A cold front passes through 31N31W, and extend southwestward to 26N57W, then it begins to dissipate to 31N64W. Fresh to locally strong winds are found north of the front with seas 8 to 12 ft. Farther east, a 1023 mb high pressure located near 27N29W is supporting light to gentle variable winds north of 20N and east of 48W. Moderate to fresh winds and seas 6 to 8 ft are found south of 20N due to the gradient between the lower pressures across the tropics and the aforementioned high pressure.

For the forecast W of 55W, the pressure gradient between high pressure of 1034 mb located NE of Bermuda and a low-level trough over the SE Bahamas and eastern Cuba continues to support fresh to strong E winds and rough seas E of the Bahamas to about 65W. A cold front is moving across the NE waters producing fresh to locally strong winds. Winds will diminish just E of the Bahamas on Wed, but increase across the waters S of 27N between 55W and 70W as the Atlantic high pressure moves eastward. These winds will diminish by Thu night as a low pressure develops E of area. The next cold front is forecast to move off the northeastern Florida coast Wed night, reach from near 31N74W to SE Florida Fri morning, and from 31N67W to eastern Cuba by Sat morning. The northern part of the front will continue to move eastward while the south part become stationary across the SE Bahamas and eastern Cuba on Sun morning.

Posted 3 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Krv