Special Features

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient over the central Caribbean will support strong to gale-force winds offshore northwestern Colombia during the nighttime hours from tonight through at least Sunday night. Seas will peak at 12 to 14 ft under the strongest winds. Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at websites: www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the southern Guinea coast to 09N22W. Further south, an ITCZ extends from 04N20W across 00N28W to north of Jericoacoara, Brazil at 02S40W. Scattered moderate convection is noted south of the monsoon trough from 01S to 07N between 10W and 17W. There is no significant convection near the ITCZ.

Gulf Of Mexico

A warm front extends eastward from a 1013 mb low near Corpus Christi to just south of New Orleans, then continues as a stationary front to northern Florida. Widely scattered showers are seen up to 80 nm north of this boundary. A 1014 mb low is causing scattered showers along the coastline near Tampico, Mexico. A surface ridge runs southwestward from a 1022 mb high over the eastern Gulf to near Veracruz, Mexico. Light to gentle winds and 1 to 3 ft seas are seen at the northeastern Gulf. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft prevail for the rest of the Gulf.

For the forecast, fresh to strong southerly winds and rough seas will follow in the wake of the warm front as it continues to lift northward tonight and Thu, in response to the low which will move into the U.S. Southern Plains. A new, trailing cold front will move into the northwest Gulf Thu night, reach from near Panama City, Florida to Veracruz, Mexico by late Fri, then stall and dissipate from near the Florida Keys to Coatzacoalcos, Mexico by late Sat. Moderate to locally fresh northerly winds will follow that front, locally strong offshore Veracruz. Winds behind the front will diminish Sat night with tranquil conditions expected across the basin Sun into at least Sun night.

Caribbean Sea

Please refer to the Special Features section on a Gale Warning.

A trade-wind regime continues across much of the basin. Fresh to strong ENE winds and 7 to 10 ft seas are present at the south- central basin. Moderate to fresh ENE to E winds and seas of 4 to 7 ft exist at the southwestern, north-central and southeastern basin, including waters near the ABC Islands. Gentle to moderate E winds and seas at 3 to 5 ft prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea.

For the forecast, fresh to strong trade winds and moderate to rough seas will persist elsewhere across the central Caribbean, with fresh to strong NE winds across the Windward Passage and in the lee of Cuba through early Fri, and in the Gulf of Honduras Thu night through Fri night. Meanwhile, long-period east swell will continue to produce locally rough seas through much of the week in the tropical Atlantic waters east of the Windward and Leeward Islands and their passages into the Caribbean, with northerly swell arriving this weekend helping to reinforce rough seas.

Atlantic Ocean

A surface trough curves southwestward from the north-central Atlantic across 31N58W to over Hispaniola. Scattered moderate convection is seen near and east of this feature north of 21N between 55W and 71W. Convergent trade winds are generating scattered moderate convection near the coastal waters of French Guiana and northeastern Brazil. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin. Gentle to moderate with locally fresh SE to S winds with 7 to 10 ft seas in moderate to large E to SE swell are found north of 20N between 35W and 60W. Gentle to moderate SW to W winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft in mixed moderate swells are present north of 20N between 60W and the southern Georgia/Florida coast. For the tropical Atlantic from 03N to 20N between 35W and the Lesser Antilles, moderate to fresh NE to SE winds and seas of 7 to 10 ft in large NE to E swells are evident. Gentle to moderate NE to E winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft in mixed moderate swell prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin.

For the forecast west of 55W, a cold front is expected to move into the waters between northeast Florida and Bermuda tonight into Thu. The front will stall and weaken along roughly 24N into the central Bahamas by early Fri, as high pressure builds off the Carolinas in the wake of the front. The high pressure will shift eastward Fri, allowing fresh to locally strong southerly wind and locally rough seas off northeast Florida and south of 22N into Sat. Large NW swell will follow the front across the waters east of 70W Fri and Sat, while yet another front may move into the NW waters Sat where it will stall and dissipate into Sun. Looking ahead to Sun, high pressure along 30N will support gentle breezes north of 24N, and moderate to fresh E winds and moderate to rough seas in E swell south of 24N.

Posted 3 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Chan