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Special Features

Tropical Storm Melissa is centered near 14.5N 74.7W at 23/0600 UTC or 240 nm SSE of Kingston Jamaica. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Melissa is moving toward the west near 2 kt. A slow forward speed and a gradual turn to the northwest or north- northwest is forecast during the next day or two, followed by a westward turn by the weekend. On the forecast track, Melissa is expected to be nearer to Jamaica and the southwestern portion of Haiti during the next couple of days. Numerous moderate to strong convection is occurring from 12N to 16N between 70W and 75W. Peak seas to near 20 ft are occurring near the center of Melissa. Some slow strengthening is forecast during the next day or two, with more substantial intensification expected by the weekend. Melissa is forecast to become a hurricane in a couple of days. Swells generated by Melissa are expected to affect portions of Hispaniola, Jamaica, and eastern Cuba during the next several days. Melissa is expected to bring 5 to 10 inches of rain to the southern Dominican Republic, southern Haiti, and eastern Jamaica through Saturday, with locally higher amounts possible. Additional heavy rainfall is possible beyond Saturday. However, uncertainty in Melissa’s track and forward speed reduces confidence in exact totals. Significant, life-threatening flash flooding and numerous landslides are possible. Across Puerto Rico, northern Dominican Republic, northern Haiti, and western Jamaica, 2 to 4 inches of rain is expected through Saturday. Flash and urban flooding will be possible through at least Saturday.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Melissa NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

Tropical Waves

The axis of an eastern Atlantic tropical wave is analyzed near 29W, south of 16N, moving west at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is depicted from 02.5N to 10N between 27W and 32W.

The axis of an eastern Atlantic tropical wave is analyzed near 33W, south of 18N. This wave is nearly stationary. Scattered moderate convection is depicted from 08N to 19N between 32W and 39W.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean near 17N16W and continues southwestward to 09N29W to 09N40.5W. The ITCZ continues from 09N40.5W to 10.5N55W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N to 12N and east of 23W.

Gulf Of America

A cold front runs westward from near Cape Coral Florida to 28N85W, then continues as a stationary front to just south of Corpus Christi, Texas. Recent satellite scatterometer data showed mainly moderate NE to E winds north of the front, where seas are 2 to 4 ft. Elsewhere, a weak ridging over the basin is supporting gentle to moderate NE to E winds and 1 to 3 ft seas.

For the forecast, the aforementioned frontal boundary will stall across southern Florida and the northern Gulf on Thu and then dissipate by Fri. Gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas will continue through Thu. Winds will increase over the eastern Gulf by Fri as the pressure gradient tightens between the building high pressure to the north and Tropical Storm Melissa in the central Caribbean. Little change in conditions is expected early next week.

Caribbean Sea

Please see SPECIAL FEATURES section above for specific information on Tropical Storm Melissa. The broad circulation of Melissa now covers the entire basin except for NW portions. Scattered squalls and a few thunderstorms are occurring on the periphery of this broad wind field, from the Gulf of Honduras to south of Jamaica, and across the eastern Caribbean. Seas to 8 ft and higher have moved to the south coast of Haiti and the eastern end of Jamaica, and extend southward to near 13N between 69W and 79W. Elsewhere, an increasing pressure gradient between Melissa and a building Bermuda high to the northeast is supporting moderate to fresh trade winds over the eastern Caribbean as observed on recent scatterometer data, and moderate to fresh NE winds in the lee of Cuba and the northwestern basin. Seas of 5 to 7 ft prevail over the eastern Caribbean, with 4 to 6 ft seas west of 79W.

For the forecast, Melissa will move to 14.7N 74.9W Thu morning, 15.0N 75.1W Thu evening, 15.3N 75.2W Fri morning, 15.7N 75.3W Fri evening, strengthen to a hurricane near 16.0N 75.6W Sat morning, and 16.1N 76.2W Sat evening. Melissa will change little in intensity as it moves to the 16.0N 77.5W late Sun

Atlantic Ocean

A cold front extends from 31N76.5W southwestward to inland central Florida. A surface trough has been analyzed to the southeast of the front from 31N72W to 29N75W. Isolated showers are depicted along the front. Recent satellite scatterometer data showed gentle to moderate SW to NW winds occurring in this region near these features. Farther east, another cold front enters our area and extends from 31N37W to 28N50W. In addition, a surface trough extends from 31N30W to 19N46W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring in between these two features particularly along the trough. Gentle to moderate NE winds are noted near these features N of 25N. A 1024 mb Bermuda high extends a ridge southward to 19N. The increasing pressure gradient between the high and Tropical Storm Melissa is supporting moderate to fresh E to SE winds and 5 to 7 ft seas south of 25N between 55W and the Bahamas. Otherwise, weak ridging dominates the remainder of the waters farther east, supporting gentle to moderate trade winds and moderate seas.

For the forecast W of 55W, the aforementioned cold front will move southeastward and stall from near Bermuda to the Florida Keys by Fri night. High pressure building in behind the front will support strong NE to E winds and rough seas north of the boundary Fri through Sun while it weakens. These winds will continue to impact the western half of the area into early next week as a tight pressure between the high pressure and Tropical Storm Melissa in the central Caribbean Sea remains in place. This pattern set up will support fresh E to SE winds over the waters south of 22N and west of 70W along with rough seas by Sun near the northern entrance to the Windward Passage.

Posted 11 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Krv