Tropical Waves

A tropical wave is analyzed in the eastern Atlantic Ocean along 23W, from 05N to 21N nearing the Cabo Verde Islands, moving westward around 15 kt. Nearby convection is described in the ITCZ/monsoon trough section below.

A nearly stationary tropical wave is analyzed in the Atlantic Ocean near 38.5W, from 05N to 19N, moving west at around 5-10 kt. Nearby convection is described in the ITCZ/monsoon trough section below.

A tropical wave is analyzed in the eastern Caribbean along 65W, from near the Virgin Islands southward to Venezuela. Scattered showers are in the eastern Caribbean enhanced by the wave, with thunderstorms over portions of Venezuela.

A tropical wave is analyzed in the Caribbean near 80.5W, from near the Cayman Islands southward to near the Azuero Peninsula, moving westward at around 15 kt. Nearby convection is described in the ITCZ/monsoon trough section below.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near the border of Mauritania and the Senegal, continuing west-southwestward to just south of the Cabo Verde Islands to 1014 mb low pressure near 10.5N38W to 08N43W. The ITCZ extends from 08N43W to the coast of South America at the border of Guyana and Venezuela near 08N60W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 16N between 20W and 25W, from 05.5N to 10.5N between 23W and 36W, and from 10N to 12N between 39W and 41W.

Gulf Of America

1020 mb high pressure is centered in the eastern Gulf waters near 28N87W. The diurnal surface trough is analyzed in the western Bay of Campeche. Moderate to fresh SE to S winds are in the NW basin due to a locally tight pressure gradient between the high and lower pressures near western Texas where seas are 3 to 5 ft. Gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds are elsewhere in the Gulf, with 2 to 4 ft seas elsewhere west of 93W and 3 ft or less east of 93W.

For the forecast, a weak ridge will remain in control of the weather pattern across the basin through the forecast period. Fresh to strong NE to E winds will pulse along the Yucatan Peninsula each afternoon and evening as a trough develops inland daily and shifts westward over the Bay of Campeche at night. A surface trough is expected to develop across Florida by Mon and drift westward into the eastern Gulf on Tue, accompanied by active weather.

Caribbean Sea

Please see the TROPICAL WAVES section above.

Outside of the TROPICAL WAVES, the pressure gradient between the subtropical Atlantic high pressure and lower pressure over Colombia supports fresh to strong winds in the central Caribbean, moderate to fresh winds in the eastern Caribbean, and gentle to moderate in the western Caribbean. As a result of these winds, seas are 5 to 8 ft in the central Caribbean, 5 to 6 ft elsewhere, except 2 to 4 ft in the NW Caribbean.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Atlantic high pressure and the Colombian low will continue to support pulsing fresh to strong trades and rough seas across the south-central Caribbean through the forecast period. Fresh east winds are expected across the Gulf of Honduras, mainly at night, into early next week. These winds are expected to reach strong speeds Sun night, and again Mon night. Moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas are expected in the eastern Caribbean through the weekend while gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail elsewhere.

Atlantic Ocean

Please see the TROPICAL WAVES section above.

The subtropical Atlantic high pressure dominates the weather conditions across the basin. Moderate to fresh SE winds are found between the Bahamas and Cuba, fresh to strong off the coast of northern Hispaniola. Winds are moderate or weaker across the remainder of the Atlantic west of 25W. Winds are moderate to fresh east of 25W, except locally strong near the coast of Africa. Seas are 2 to 4 ft north of 25N between 30W and 70W. Seas of 5 to 7 ft in NE swell south of 20N and west of 35W, and mainly 3 to 6 ft across the remainder of waters, except 5 to 8 ft near the coast of Africa.

For the forecast west of 55W, the Bermuda-Azores High extends a ridge toward the Bahamas and Florida. This system will gradually shift eastward and weaken through the upcoming weekend. The related pressure gradient will support gentle to moderate winds, except for fresh to locally strong east to southeast winds off the northern coast of Hispaniola through Sat. Winds and seas will diminish Sun through early Mon, then increase modestly Tue.

Posted 47 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Lewitsky