Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Liberia near 06N11W and continues to 04N17W. The ITCZ extends from 04N17W to the coast of Brazil near 02S45W. Scattered moderate convection is noted south of 02N west of 38W. Additional scattered moderate convection is from 03N to 06N between 25W and 29W.

Gulf Of America

Dense fog will reduce visibilities to 1 nm or less through early to mid-afternoon in coastal waters from Matagorda Bay, Texas, south to Veracruz, Mexico. Please exercise caution in reduced visibilities. Showers and tstorms are along a surface trough in the N Gulf of America, which extends from 28N87W to 26N93W. 1019 mb high pressure is centered just west of Tampa Bay, Florida. Light and variable winds prevail across the Gulf waters, with 1-3 ft seas.

For the forecast, a cold front is forecast to push southward across the NE Gulf waters tonight and exit the southeastern waters Sun evening. Stronger higher pressure will build across the region in the wake of this front allowing for freshening of the winds across the basin into Mon. Looking ahead, fresh to strong southerly winds will develop over the western half of the starting Mon night ahead of the next cold front that is forecast to emerge off the Texas coast Tue afternoon. This cold front will reach from southeastern Louisiana to the SW Gulf late Tue night, from northern Florida to near 24N91W and to the central Bay of Campeche Wed, and to just southeast of the basin by early Thu. High pressure ridging in its wake will slide to the eastern Gulf Thu night.

Caribbean Sea

The combination of high pressure over the E Gulf of America and near the Azores provides for continued ridging across the Caribbean Sea. The pressure gradient currently sustains moderate to fresh trades in the eastern, central, and southwestern Caribbean, with 4-7 ft seas. The latest satellite scatterometer data indicates winds to strong speeds off the coast of Colombia in the south-central Caribbean in locally 8 ft seas. Light wind and 2-4 ft seas prevail in the NW Caribbean.

For the forecast, strong NE winds will pulse each night offshore Colombia through Tue night while strong trades are forecast to affect the Gulf of Venezuela through the weekend. Moderate to fresh winds in the central and eastern Caribbean will diminish to gentle to moderate speeds Mon morning and continue through Tue night. The tail end of a cold front will move across Cuba on Sun night. High pressure building in the wake of the front will lead to the development of moderate to fresh NE winds in the lee of Cuba Sun night into Mon night, and fresh to strong E to SE winds in the Gulf of Honduras Tue night into Wed.

Atlantic Ocean

The previously analyzed cold front over the W Atlantic quickly dissipated earlier this morning. Light to gentle winds prevail across the waters west of 60W, with 3-5 ft seas. A surface trough is producing a few showers across the south-central Bahamas. Another surface trough is producing some showers north of the Mona Passage. Ridging from high pressure centered near the Azores dominates remaining waters east of 60W, with moderate to fresh trades indicated by this morning's scatterometer data. Seas are 4-7 ft, with a few peaks to 8 ft analyzed in the ongoing fresh winds.

For the forecast, a cold front will move off the northeast Florida coast tonight, reach from near 31N72W to the central Bahamas Sun morning, from near Bermuda to 25N72W and to just northwest of Haiti Sun night, from near 31N62W to 20N72W early Mon, from near 31N55W to 26N63W and stationary to 20N69W Mon night and weakening stationary from near 26N55W to 20N69W Tue. Fresh to strong southwest winds are forecast ahead of the front north of about 26N. High pressure will build across the region in the wake of the front. A tight gradient between the high pressure and the front is expected to lead to fresh northeast to east winds south of 30N west of the front from Mon night through Tue night. Looking ahead, fresh to strong southerly winds are expected to develop over the NW part of the area starting Tue afternoon and into early Wed in advance of a stronger cold front. These winds may reach to near gale Wed and Wed night as they shift to mostly south to southwest in direction while the front emerges off the southeastern United States coast. Fresh to strong winds west are expected west of the front east of northern and central Florida Wed night. The front is forecast to move across the western and central waters Thu and Thu night, with fresh to strong winds on either side of it north and northeast of the Bahamas.

Posted 0 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Mahoney