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Special Features

Significant Swell Event: Large long-period NW swell, with wave periods of 13-14 seconds is propagating across the north- central Atlantic waters, with seas greater than 12 ft north 26N between 51W and a line from 31N37W to 26N44W. Seas are currently peaking near 15 ft (4.5 M) along 31N. The swell will gradually subside through Fri, allowing for seas to lower below 12 ft. Mariners should use extreme caution over these waters, depending on vessel type and cargo. Additional pulses of NW swell are expected to reach the waters east of 55W by Fri night, briefly building seas to 12 ft north of 30N roughly between 40 and 47W through early Sat.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 11N15W and continues southwestward to near 08N24W, where it transitions to the ITCZ to 05N30W to 03N38W and o near 04N47W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is seen within 180 nm south of the trough between 13W-16W. Scattered moderate convection is from 07N to 09N between 16W-19W and within 60 nm south of the ITCZ between 30W-32W.

Gulf Of America

A surface trough extends from 26N91W to the coast of Mexico near 18.5N93W. To its northeast, a ridge stretches from the Mid- Atlantic region south-southwestward to the NE Gulf. The associated gradient is generally allowing for gentle to moderate east to southeast winds across the eastern and central Gulf waters north of 25N and moderate northeast to east winds over the southeastern Gulf and Straits of Florida. Both buoy observations and recent altimeter satellite data passes indicate seas of 3 ft or less over the basin, with the exception of slightly higher seas of 3 to 4 ft over the central Gulf and in the Straits of Florida.

For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh east to southeast winds are expected over the north-central Gulf, north and east of the trough axis through late tonight as the trough approaches the Texas coast. Moderate to locally fresh south to southwest winds will then develop over the western basin on Fri and continue through Sat as a complex low pressure system moves over the south- central U.S. Looking ahead, a strong cold front will move into the northwest Gulf on Sun and progress southeastward through the basin into Mon evening. Widespread strong N to NE winds and rough seas can be expected behind the front, and gale- force winds and very rough seas will be possible offshore of Veracruz Mon morning into the evening hours. Conditions will improve basin-wide by Tue evening.

Caribbean Sea

Gentle to moderate trade winds are over the basin, except for fresh trade winds in the south-central portion of the sea. Seas are in the 2 to 4 ft range, except for higher seas of 3 to 5 ft from 11N to 15N between 68W and 80W.

A trough is over the southwestern Caribbean Sea from near 14N82W to 10N81W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are within 120 nm east of the trough from 11N to 14N. A weak trough is over the eastern Caribbean along 64W. No significant convection is occurring is noted.

For the forecast, moderate trade winds and moderate seas will prevail over the Caribbean through Fri afternoon, with winds pulsing to fresh speeds in the south-central basin and offshore of southern Hispaniola. Winds will freshen over the central and eastern Caribbean Fri night into early next week as a surface trough moves westward through the basin, and high pressure builds to the north. Locally strong winds and rough seas will be possible in the south-central Caribbean. Elsewhere, rough seas in north well are expected over the waters east of the Lesser Antilles by late tonight. A new east to southeast swell set will support rough seas through the Atlantic Passages this weekend into early next week. Looking ahead, a strong cold front is slated to enter the northwestern Caribbean early next week, leading to widespread fresh to strong NE winds and building seas in the wake of the front.

Atlantic Ocean

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for details on a NW swell event that is impacting the central Atlantic waters with very rough seas.

A cold front is anaylzed from near 31N33W to 30N40W, where it transitions to a stationary front to the southeastern Bahamas and to near 21.5N76W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are evident northwest of the boundary west of about 65W. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are elsewhere northwest and north of of the boundary. High pressure, anchored by a 1021 mb high near 26N40W and by a 1022 mb high near 29.5N26W dominates the remainder of the discussion waters north of 18N. A weak trough extends from 17N51W to 07N53W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are east of the trough from 10N to 14N between 44W and trough, and also west of the trough to near 57W from 10N to 13N. Overnight scatterometer satellite data passes generally depict light to gentle anticyclonic winds over the waters north of 22N east of 51W, and north of 19N west of 51W, except for an area of gentle to moderate east winds south of 27N west of 70W. The scatterometer satellite data passes indicate mostly fresh trade winds south of 22N east of 51W and south of 19N between 51W and the Lesser Antilles. Aside from the significant swell event discussed in the Special Features section above, seas greater than 8 ft cover the waters north of 20N between a line from 29N35W to 20N56W and 64W. Elsewhere, seas of 5 to 7 ft are elsewhere east of 72W, except for higher seas of 6 to 8 ft east of 50W and lower seas of 3 to 4 ft west of 72W and 3 ft or less within the area of the Bahamas.

For the forecast west of 55W, rough seas in north swell will expand east of 65W and southeastward to the waters north of 20N tonight. A new NW swell associated with a storm system passing north of the area will reinforce rough seas east of 65W Fri morning through Sat morning. Moderate or weaker winds are expected over the waters through much of Fri, with occasionally fresh E winds developing south of 25N Fri night. Looking ahead, moderate to fresh south to southwest winds may develop offshore of Florida late this weekend ahead of a cold front moving through the southeastern U.S. The cold front will push off the coast early next week and progress southeastward into the central Atlantic, leading to fresh to strong winds and building seas behind the front.

Posted 17 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Aguirre