Monsoon Trough/Intertropical Convergence Zone

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coast of Guinea near 11N15W and southwestward to near 03N20W, where it transitions to the ITCZ to 03S30W to near coast of Brazil at 04S37W. Scattered moderate convection is active from 01N to 03N between 05W and 25W.

Gulf Of America

The tail end of a mid to upper level trough is moving through the northeastern Gulf, supporting a small area of showers and thunderstorms near 26.5N86W. All remaining thunderstorm activity has moved east of the basin. A stationary front extends over the Sabine Pass area in the far northwest Gulf. The standard evening trough is forming over the west coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Elsewhere, the subtropical ridge extends from the western Atlantic across the Florida Peninsula to the central Gulf. This pattern is supporting moderate to fresh winds with 4 to 6 ft seas along the northern western coasts of the Yucatan Peninsula, but mostly gentle breezes and 2 to 4 ft seas elsewhere across the Gulf. Platforms over the northwestern and north-central Gulf are again indicating areas of sea fog, with visibility of 2 to 5 miles.

For the forecast, the surface trough over the Yucatan Peninsula is expected to move westward through the Bay of Campeche tonight, promoting fresh SE to NE winds over the region into early Tue. A similar pattern is expected Tue night. Elsewhere, fresh to strong SE to S winds will develop Tue night across much of the basin west of 85W, as the pressure gradient tightens between building high pressure in the western Atlantic and strengthening low pressure in the south-central United States. Building rough seas of 8 to 11 ft are expected in this region Wed morning through late week. East of 85W, moderate SE winds Tue night will strengthen to fresh to locally strong speeds Wed into Thu, including through the Florida Straits. Areas of dense sea fog reducing visibility to 1 nm or less may form tonight along some sections of the Texas and Florida coasts while patchy fog may form near the southwestern Louisiana coast.

Caribbean Sea

The pressure gradient between strong high pressure north of the area and a 1007 mb over northern Colombia is supporting fresh to strong trade winds over the central Caribbean coast and in the Gulf of Venezuela. Moderate to fresh trades are elsewhere east of 80W. Moderate to locally fresh winds are found over the western Caribbean. Seas of 6-8 ft prevail east of 80W, with seas in the 4-6 ft range west of 80W.

For the forecast, the fresh to strong trade winds and rough seas will pulse each night and morning offshore of Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela through Tue. Winds are expected to strengthen to near- gale force Wed into this weekend as the pressure gradient strengthens between the Colombian low and high pressure building over the western Atlantic. Very rough seas will be possible with these winds. Fresh to strong E to SE winds are slated to pulse in the Gulf of Honduras through Tue, before winds increase to near- gale force speeds and rough seas develop for the second half of the week. Large E swell will continue to impact the Tropical Atlantic waters and Caribbean Passages most of the week, maintaining rough seas. Otherwise, moderate to fresh trade winds, with strong pulses, are expected across the remainder of the Caribbean through midweek, before widespread fresh to strong winds and rough seas dominate the basin Thu into the upcoming weekend.

Atlantic Ocean

Thunderstorms associated with a mid level short wave trough moving across the southeastern United States are regenerating over the Gulf Stream, resulting in a squall line moving off the coast of northeast Florida. Farther east, broad high pressure dominates the Atlantic waters, anchored by a strong 1033 mb high center that is located over the north- central Atlantic near 37N46W. The associated gradient supports moderate to fresh easterly winds and 7 to 10 ft seas over open Atlantic waters west of 35W. A cold front is moving through the central Atlantic into the eastern Atlantic is just reaching 30N between 35W and 50W. No significant weather is occurring with this front. Winds are 20 kt or less near the front, however, seas of 8 ft in long- period north swell follow the front. In the eastern part of the area, gentle to moderate winds, and seas of 4 to 7 ft are north of 20N and east of about 40W. Moderate to fresh winds along with seas of 6 to 7 ft are present elsewhere.

For the forecast west of 55W, fresh to strong trade winds and rough seas will pulse each night and morning offshore of Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela through Tue. Winds are expected to strengthen to near- gale force Wed into this weekend as the pressure gradient strengthens between the Colombian low and high pressure building over the western Atlantic. Very rough seas will be possible with these winds. Fresh to strong E to SE winds are slated to pulse in the Gulf of Honduras through Tue, before winds increase to near- gale force speeds and rough seas develop for the second half of the week. Large E swell will continue to impact the Tropical Atlantic waters and Caribbean Passages most of the week, maintaining rough seas. Otherwise, moderate to fresh trade winds, with strong pulses, are expected across the remainder of the Caribbean through midweek, before widespread fresh to strong winds and rough seas dominate the basin Thu into the upcoming weekend.

Posted 1 hour, 38 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Christensen