Go to the WPLG homepage

Special Features

Western Atlantic Gale Warning: A strong cold front, extending from 31N68W through southeastern Cuba into the northwestern Caribbean Sea, will continue to move eastward into the central Atlantic this week. Gale force winds will continue in the wake of the front north of 29N between 66W and 77W through this afternoon, with widespread strong to locally near-gale force NE winds occurring elsewhere behind the front through late tonight. Seas of 14 to 19 ft will occur near the strongest winds, with widespread 8 to 14 ft seas elsewhere over the western Atlantic. The front will weaken and eventually stall Wed into Thu, with diminishing winds and seas expected behind the front.

For more information about this warning, please see the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more information.

Significant Rainfall over Central America: A cold front currently extends over the central Bahamas, Cuba, the Caribbean, Belize, Honduras, and Guatemala. This front and an associated shear line will continue to support strong and moist onshore flow, particularly into the northern coast of Honduras, bringing precipitation through Thu. Scattered moderate to strong convection is occurring in the southwestern Caribbean, generally west of 75W and south of 20N. As the frontal system continues its progression through the Atlantic, the low-level flow regime is expected to shift from a NE flow to an E flow, and will begin to inject moisture farther north into Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula beginning on Wed. An activation of the Panamanian low will continue advecting moisture into southeast Nicaragua, and the Atlantic coasts of Costa Rica and Panama through Thu evening. Orographic enhancement will aid in increasing total precipitation. Significant rainfall in excess of 6 inches over the course of several days will be possible during this period with local amounts of 8 to 12 inches possible over northern Honduras, and is likely to result in life-threatening flash flooding and landslides. This information was provided by the International Desk at the Weather Prediction Center.

Please refer to your local meteorological service for more details.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 11N15W and continues to 06.5N20W. The ITCZ continues from 06.5N20W to 09N29W to 05N52W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 04N to 12N between 13W and 20W.

Gulf Of America

Ridging extends over the basin as a 1034 mb high strengthens in the Deep South of the U.S., and a 1030 mb high builds in northeastern Mexico. A strong pressure gradient between this ridge and a cold front moving through the western Atlantic is supporting fresh to strong NE winds over the southern and eastern Gulf, as observed via recent scatterometer satellite data. Recent buoy data show rough seas continue over this region, with locally very rough seas in excess of 12 ft noted through the Yucatan Channel. Fresh NW winds also prevail in the southwestern basin offshore of Veracruz. Over the northwestern Gulf, gentle to locally moderate E to SE winds and 2 to 5 ft seas are noted.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between a cold front located SE of the area and high pressure centered over the SE of the United States supports fresh to strong N to NE winds over the eastern half of the Gulf. These winds will diminish by tonight as the high pressure weakens and moves to north Florida. At the same time, moderate to locally fresh southerly return flow is expected over the NW Gulf. Then, high pressure will remain in control of the weather pattern across the Gulf region toward the end of the week producing a gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow.

Caribbean Sea

Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on the significant rainfall event expected across Central America and adjacent waters during the next few days.

A strong cold front, extending from southeastern Cuba through northeastern Honduras, is progressing through the northwestern Caribbean today. Recent scatterometer satellite data show widespread strong to near-gale force NE winds are occurring in the wake of the front from the lee of Cuba through the Yucatan Channel and Gulf of Honduras. Rapidly building seas are occurring in this region, with very rough seas of 12 to 13 ft noted offshore of Belize and Honduras. Widespread moderate to fresh trade winds prevail over the rest of the basin, with locally strong winds noted in the south-central basin, as a tightening pressure gradient develops between the cold front, low pressure in the south-central Caribbean, and high pressure in the central Atlantic. Recent altimeter and buoy data show 5 to 7 ft seas over this region, with seas to 8 ft noted offshore of northwestern Colombia.

For the forecast, the aforementioned cold front will stall from the Windward Passage to near Cabo Gracias a Dios, Nicaragua by this evening, then weaken and gradually dissipate for the latter half of the week. Aside from the strong winds and seas, the front will continue to support the development of showers and thunderstorms over the NW Caribbean and parts of Central America through at least Thu. Fresh to strong winds and rough seas will prevail in the south-central Caribbean through Wed night.

Atlantic Ocean

Please refer to the Special Features section above for additional details on the Gale Warning in effect for the W Atlantic.

A strong cold front, extending from 31N68W through southeastern Cuba into the northwestern Caribbean Sea, is moving through the western Atlantic. Recent scatterometer satellite data show widespread strong to near-gale force winds are occurring in the wake of the front, with gales north of 29N between 66W and 77W. A wide swath of seas in excess of 8 ft are occurring behind the front north of 25N and west of 65W, with seas over 12 ft noted via recent altimeter data north of 28N and west of 70W. Altimeter and buoy data denote seas over 18 ft north of 29N. To the east of the front, strong S to SW winds are occurring north of 28N and west of 63W.

Elsewhere, a 1019 mb low is centered near 30N43W, and scatterometer data show moderate to locally fresh N to NE winds and locally rough seas are occurring north and west of the low. Farther east, moderate to locally fresh W to NW winds are noted north of 28.5N between 20W and 55W as a storm system and associated cold front pass north of the waters. The rest of the open Atlantic waters is dominated by ridging, supporting moderate to locally fresh trade winds and 5 to 7 ft seas.

For the forecast west of 55W, a strong cold front extends from 31N68W to eastern Cuba. It is forecast to reach from 31N61W to the Windward Passage by this evening, then stall from 31N55W to eastern Cuba on Wed. Gale force winds and rough to very rough seas follow the front. As the front stalls and weakens, winds will diminish to moderate to fresh speeds on Wed, but rough seas in NW swell will persist in the wake of the front through Wed night. A reinforcing cold front will move across the N waters on Fri.

Posted 3 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Adams