Special Features

Tropical Storm Lorenzo is centered near 14.2N 40.3W at 13/0900 UTC or 950 nm W of the Cabo Verde Islands, moving NW at 15 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Lorenzo is moving toward the NW and this motion with some gradual slowdown is expected through tonight, followed by a turn northward on Tuesday. Little change in strength is forecasted today, but some gradual intensification is possible by the middle portion of this week.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Jerry NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

Tropical Waves

A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 25W, south of 12N, moving westward at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 120 nm on both sides of the wave.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea near 08N13W to 07N28W. The ITCZ extends from 07N28W to 07N35W. No additional convection is noted near the monsoon trough/ITCZ.

Gulf Of America

Weak high pressure over the Mississippi Valley extends into the Gulf waters, supporting moderate or lighter winds and seas of 2-4 ft over much of the basin. A surface trough is analyzed from the Florida Straits to 26N95W and shallow, isolated showers are evident near this feature.

For the forecast, a weak high pressure pattern will dominate the basin through the work week, resulting in gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas over much of the Gulf. Winds are expected to increase to fresh speeds over the eastern and central Gulf Thu night through Fri night as the pressure gradient tightens some across the area. .

Caribbean Sea

Divergence aloft and plenty of tropical moisture support scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over much of the central and western Caribbean, also impacting the Greater Antilles and Central America. Localized flooding is possible, especially in mountainous and low-lying areas. Weak high pressure across the Caribbean supports moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas.

For the forecast, Tropical Storm Lorenzo is near 14.2N 40.3W at 5 AM EDT, and is moving northwest at 15 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Lorenzo will move to 15.0N 41.7W this afternoon, 16.2N 43.4W Tue morning, 18.0N 44.4W Tue afternoon, 20.1N 44.7W Wed morning, 22.4N 44.2W Wed afternoon, and 25.1N 42.6W Thu morning. Lorenzo will change little in intensity as it moves to the 30.9N 36.9W early Fri. Meanwhile, a moist weather pattern will maintain scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across the western and central Caribbean during the next few days. A weak pressure gradient will support moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas over much of the basin through the work week. A weak cyclonic circulation may develop over the NW Caribbean toward midweek.

Atlantic Ocean

Please refer to the Special Features section for details on Tropical Storm Lorenzo centered 950 nm W of the Cabo Verde Islands.

A dissipating stationary front extends from 31N73W to the NW Bahamas, where it becomes a surface trough to the Florida Straits. Divergence aloft and tropical moisture support scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms east of these boundaries to 70W. Fresh winds and rough seas are found ahead of and behind these boundaries, mainly west of 68W. Farther east, a surface trough located SE of Bermuda and associated with the remnants of Jerry is producing scattered showers north of 26N and between 57W and 63W. Fresh to strong winds and rough seas to 12ft are found north of 27N and between 55W and 65W. The remainder of the SW North Atlantic, west of 55W, is dominated by a weak pressure pattern that sustains moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas.

The central and eastern tropical Atlantic waters are also under the influence of a relaxed gradient as multiple storm systems transit across the midlatitudes. In general, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas dominate these waters.

For the forecast west of 55W, Tropical Storm Lorenzo is near 14.2N 40.3W at 5 AM EDT, and is moving northwest at 15 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Lorenzo will move to 15.0N 41.7W this afternoon, 16.2N 43.4W Tue morning, 18.0N 44.4W Tue afternoon, 20.1N 44.7W Wed morning, 22.4N 44.2W Wed afternoon, and 25.1N 42.6W Thu morning. Lorenzo will change little in intensity as it moves to the 30.9N 36.9W early Fri. Elsewhere, fresh to strong winds will continue to affect the waters north of 28N and between 58W and 62W through tonight. In the meantime, a dissipating stationary front extends from a non-tropical low off the Carolinas to NW Bahamas, followed by a surface trough to the Gulf of America. The frontal boundary will be reinforced today, and the merged front will extend from 31N71W to the central Bahamas and western Cuba as a cold front by Mon evening, and from 31N66W to the central Bahamas and central Cuba by Tue evening. Fresh to strong winds and rough seas are expected on either side of the front across the waters N of 27N by late Tue, and shift eastward through late in the week.

Posted 44 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Delgado