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Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

A monsoon trough is mostly confined to the African continent. An ITCZ extends westward from off the coast of northern Sierra Leone across 07N30W to 07N50W. Scattered moderate with isolated strong convection is observed from 04N to 12N and between 17W and 51W.

The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering scattered heavy showers and isolated strong thunderstorms across the Caribbean waters near Panama and northwestern Colombia.

Gulf Of America

A cold front extends southwestward from the western Atlantic across the Florida Straits and western Cuba, then through the Yucatan Peninsula and Bay of Campeche to near Veracruz, Mexico. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring up to 70 nm along either side of the front. Fresh to strong N to NE winds and 7 to 10 ft seas dominate the Gulf south of 27N. North of 27N, moderate to fresh N to ENE winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft prevail.

For the forecast, the front is expected to exit the Gulf to the southeast by Fri morning, with scattered showers and thunderstorms continuing along and ahead of the front tonight. Fresh to strong NE winds will follow in the wake of the cold front, with conditions improving Fri night through Sat. Fresh to strong return flow will set up in the northwestern Gulf Fri night and Sat, ahead of the next front. This next cold front will emerge off the Texas coast early Sun morning and meander slowly southeastward across the northwestern and north-central Gulf Sun through Mon before moving southeastward Mon night and Tue.

Caribbean Sea

A surface trough along with divergent flow aloft is causing scattered heavy showers and isolated thunderstorms near the coast of Nicaragua and Honduras. Convergent trade winds are inducing isolated thunderstorms at the northwestern basin, and near Hispaniola and the Leeward Islands. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional convection in the Caribbean basin. Fresh to strong ENE winds and 9 to 11 ft seas are present at the south-central basin. Moderate with locally fresh NE to E winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft are noted for the eastern, north- central and southwestern White House. Gentle to moderate NNE to NE winds and seas at 3 to 5 ft prevail at the northwestern basin.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between strong high pressure over the central Atlantic and lower pressure over the southwestern Caribbean will sustain strong to near-gale force trades over the southwestern and south-central basin, including the Gulf of Venezuela, through Fri morning before diminishing. Moderate to fresh trades are expected elsewhere in the eastern and central basin through Sun. A cold front will enter the northwestern Caribbean early Fri morning, followed by fresh to strong NE winds. The front is expected to stall from central Cuba to the Yucatan Peninsula Fri night, then gradually dissipate over the northwestern Caribbean on Sat. A very weak pressure gradient across the region Mon and Tue will lead to tranquil marine conditions.

Atlantic Ocean

A cold front extends southwestward from off the Carolinas coast across 31N73W to beyond the Florida Straits. Scattered showers and occasional thunderstorms are found up to 80 nm along either side. Convergent southerly winds are causing widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms near Puerto Rico and the norther Leeward Islands. At the central Atlantic, a stationary front runs southwestward from the northeastern Atlantic across 31N35W to 26N48W. Patchy showers are evident near and up to 50 nm south of this feature. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section at the beginning for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin.

Fresh to strong W to NW winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft are noted north of the cold front. Gentle to moderate with locally fresh NE to SE winds, and 6 to 8 ft seas in mixed northerly swells are found from 09N to 31N between 35W and the cold front/Lesser Antilles. Farther south for rest of the Atlantic Basin west of the 35W, gentle to moderate ESE to SE winds and 4 to 6 ft seas in mixed moderate swells prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, the pressure gradient between a 1030 mb high over the central Atlantic and low pressure across the SW Caribbean will sustain fresh E winds south of 22N and in the approach to the Windward Passage through tonight before diminishing on Fri. A cold front across the NW waters extends from 31N73W to Key Largo, and is followed by fresh NW to N winds. The cold front will move southeastward and extend from 31N64W through the central Bahamas by Fri night, and then dissipate from 31N58W the NW Bahamas by Sun morning. A tight pressure gradient in the wake of the front will produce increasing NE winds across much of the forecast area Sat, diminishing from west to east Sun.

Posted 2 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Chan