WEATHER ALERT
HURRICANE
Florida
South Florida
Hurricane hunters set to investigate disturbance off Southeast US
Read full article: Hurricane hunters set to investigate disturbance off Southeast USShowers and thunderstorms are becoming more concentrated around an area of low pressure – now designated Invest 92L – centered about 100 miles off the coast of northeast Florida.
UPDATES
For the North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.
Posted 42 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Forecaster Reinhart
Monsoon Trough/ITCZ
The monsoon trough remains inland over Africa. The ITCZ extends from 09N15W to 06N25W to 07N58W. Scattered moderate convection is from 01N to 08N between 13W and 33W.
Gulf Of America
1016 mb high pressure is centered just west of the Florida Keys. A weak surface trough is analyzed along 92W. Light to gentle anticyclonic winds and 1-3 ft seas prevail across the basin.
For the forecast, relatively weak high pressure centered over the eastern Gulf will generally maintain gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow across the basin through Mon. Afterward, stronger high pressure that moves offshore the Mid-Atlantic region will build south- southwestward across the northern Gulf through the rest of the period, with its associated gradient resulting in fresh to strong southeast to south winds across most of basin, with the strong wind speeds expected mainly in the NW Gulf as a cold front moves across central Texas. Seas are expected to become rough with these winds.
Caribbean Sea
The sharp surface trough persists in the W Caribbean, extending from La Isla de la Juventud, Cuba, to Cabo Gracias a Dios, Honduras. Scattered showers are along the trough axis and adjacent waters. Scattered moderate convection is from the coast of Panama north to 11N between 75W and 83W, enhanced by the East Pacific Monsoon Trough. Satellite scatterometer indicates light to gentle trades across the basin, except in the south-central Caribbean off the coast of Colombia where trades reach moderate speeds. Seas are 2-4 ft across the basin.
For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient over the basin will result in mainly gentle to moderate trade winds for the first half of the week. As high pressure builds southward toward the region, and the Colombian low becomes evident, the trade winds will increase late this week. Moderate long period northeast swell will propagate through waters east of the Lesser Antilles as well as Caribbean passages into Mon.
Atlantic Ocean
A cold front extends from 31N45W to the eastern Dominican Republic. Scattered moderate convection is north of 26N between 40W and 50W. A pair of 1014 mb lows are analyzed in the deep central tropical Atlantic, with no significant convection evident at this time. 1015 mb high pressure is centered near 27N62W, and near the Azores. Moderate or weaker trades, and 4-7 ft seas, prevail across the central and western Atlantic. In the eastern Atlantic, fresh NE winds are evident in satellite scatterometer east of 25W. Decaying N swell to 8 ft is also analyzed in the waters east of 25W.
For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front will reach the southeastern part of the area this afternoon and become stationary, then weaken tonight and dissipate Mon. The high pressure will shift southeastward through Mon night as a weakening cold front moves across the waters east of northern and central Florida. Ahead of this front, fresh to strong southwest to west winds will impact the waters north of about 29N today through Mon afternoon. Winds and seas will diminish behind the front, which is forecast to becoming stationary across the eastern part of the area going into the middle portion of the week.
Posted 27 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Mahoney
