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Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the Gambia coast, then runs southwestward to 10N20W. An ITCZ continues westward from 10N20W across 07N40W to just north of Guyana at 09N60W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is occurring near and south of the ITCZ/monsoon trough from 03N to 10N between the Liberia coast and 31W. Scattered moderate convection is seen near and up to 100 nm north of the ITCZ between 50W and 60W.

The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering scattered heavy showers and isolated thunderstorms along the Caribbean coast of Panama.

Gulf Of America

A surface trough is causing scattered showers at the Yucatan Channel, including part of the Florida Straits. Otherwise, a broad surface ridge continues to dominate much of the Gulf. Moderate to fresh E winds and seas at 3 to 5 ft are present across the Florida Straits. Light to gentle winds and 1 to 2 ft seas are found at the northeastern Gulf. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft dominate the rest of the Gulf.

For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh E to SE winds and slight to moderate seas will occur over the Gulf through Fri as high pressure prevails over the northeastern Gulf and southeastern U.S. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh NE winds will pulse offshore of the Yucatan Peninsula and into the eastern Bay of Campeche each afternoon and evening through this weekend. Looking ahead, fresh SE winds may develop over the northwestern Gulf late this weekend as low pressure strengthens in the south-central U.S.

Caribbean Sea

A surface trough is creating widely scattered moderate convection at the eastern basin, including the Mona Passage and Lesser Antilles. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional convection in the Caribbean Sea. Moderate to fresh with locally strong NE to E trade winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft are evident at the south-central basin. Light to gentle winds and seas at 1 to 3 ft Gentle to moderate NE to E trade winds with 3 to 5 ft seas prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea.

For the forecast, moderate to occasionally fresh NE to E winds are expected over the Caribbean through this weekend as a moderate pressure gradient prevails between high pressure to the north and low pressure in the south-central basin. Locally strong winds and rough seas will pulse offshore of Colombia each night through Sun.

Atlantic Ocean

A stationary front meanders west-southwestward from the north- central Atlantic across 31N56W to the northwest Bahamas. A surface trough is seen just south of the front near 28N55W. Scattered moderate convection is found near the front/trough north of 22N between 51W and 65W. Another stationary front curves southwestward from the northeastern Atlantic across 30N35W to 24N42W. Widely scattered showers are present up to 60 nm along either side of this boundary. Another surface trough is triggering widely scattered moderate convection from 20N to 24N between 62W and the Turks and Caicos Islands. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section at the beginning for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin.

Light to gentle winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft are seen north of 25N between 65W and the Florida/Bahamas. Otherwise, gentle to moderate NE to E winds and 5 to 8 ft seas in moderate to large northerly swell dominate the rest of the Atlantic north of 20N between 35W and the Florida/Georgia coast. For the tropical Atlantic from 07N to 20N between 35W and the Lesser Antilles, gentle to moderate with locally fresh easterly winds and 6 to 8 ft seas are noted. Gentle with locally moderate NE to SE winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft in mixed swells prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin west of 35W.

For the forecast west of 55W, moderate to occasionally fresh NE winds are expected north of Hispaniola and Cuba, and through the Bahamas through Fri as high pressure prevails over the northeastern Gulf of America and the southeastern U.S. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are expected elsewhere through Fri. Looking ahead, increasing SW winds and building seas may occur offshore of northern Florida this weekend ahead of a cold front moving through the southeastern U.S.

Posted 59 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Chan