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Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

A monsoon trough runs southwestward from the Senegal coast just south of Dakar to 11N20W. An ITCZ curves west-southwestward from 11N20W to 05N35W to north of Suriname at 08N54W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted near both features from 01N to 09N between the Guinea-Bissau/Liberia coast and 45W.

The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across the Caribbean waters near Panama.

Gulf Of America

The northern portion of a surface trough is causing scattered showers across the Florida Straits. Otherwise, a broad surface ridge is dominating much of the Gulf. Gentle with locally moderate ENE to SSE winds and 1 to 4 ft seas are present for the entire Gulf.

For the forecast, the surface ridge will maintain gentle to moderate E to SE winds and slight to moderate seas through Fri across the Gulf. Looking ahead, a weak cold front is likely to move into the northern Gulf by Sat.

Caribbean Sea

A weak 1013 mb low is persisting midway between the Isle of Youth, Cuba, and the Cayman Islands. Convergent SE winds east of the low are generating scattered moderate convection between central Cuba and Jamaica. A surface trough is producing similar convection near and east of the Lesser Antilles. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional convection in the Caribbean Sea. Fresh NE to E trade winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft are evident at the south-central basin. Gentle to moderate NE to ESE winds and 2 to 4 ft seas prevail for the rest of the Caribbean Sea.

For the forecast, the aforementioned low pressure will devolve into a surface trough later today, move westward to the Yucatan Channel tonight and then dissipate Wed. High pressure building from the north will gradually cause trade winds to return to normal magnitude by midweek, with moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds expected Wed into the weekend. Pulsing strong winds are likely offshore Colombia during the overnight and early morning hours.

Atlantic Ocean

A weak and slow moving cold front extends west-southwestward from east of Bermuda across 31N62W to the northwest Bahamas. Patchy showers and occurring near and up to 90 nm north of the front. Farther east, divergent upper-level winds are enhancing scattered moderate convection near a surface trough from 27N to 31N between 54W and 60W. Similar synoptic setting is creating similar convection east of the Turk and Caicos Islands. At the central Atlantic, a stationary front runs southwestward from the northeastern Atlantic across 31N36W to 23N45W. Widely scattered showers are found up to 50 nm along either side of this feature. A robust surface trough is bringing scattered heavy showers and isolated thunderstorms near the coast of Guyana, Suriname and French Guiana. Refer to the monsoon trough/ITCZ section for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin.

Moderate to fresh with locally strong NE to E winds and 5 to 7 ft seas are present near the surface trough from the Suriname and French Guiana coast northward to 13N. For the rest of the tropical Atlantic from 06N to 20N between 35W and the Lesser Antilles, gentle to moderate NE to E winds and seas at 6 to 8 ft exist. North of the aforementioned cold front, moderate NE to ESE winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft are present. Farther east from 20N to 31N between 51W and the cold front, light to gentle winds and 5 to 8 ft seas in large northerly swell dominate. North of 20N between 35W and 51W, gentle to moderate E winds and seas at 6 to 7 ft are evident. Gentle to locally moderate E to SE winds and 5 to 7 ft seas prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin west of 35W.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned cold front will slide eastward today and weaken further, stall tonight from around 31N58W to 27N70W, then dissipate Wed. High pressure will build southward in the wake of the front through late week, leading to gentle breezes north of 25N and moderate E winds to the south. North swell will induce rough seas north of 28N and east of 70W into tonight. Thereafter, seas will gradually decay from moderate to slight from west to east across the area through late week. Looking ahead, SW winds may increase slightly off northeast Florida late Fri through Sat ahead of a weak cold front moving through the southeast U.S.

Posted 2 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Chan