The disturbance we’ve been tracking through the Caribbean this week was upgraded to Tropical Depression Nineteen Thursday morning off the coast of northern Honduras.

Tropical Depression 19 strengthened into Tropical Storm Sara Thursday afternoon in the western Caribbean. Life-threatening and potentially catastrophic flash flooding and mudslides are expected in Honduras through the weekend, the National Hurricane Center reported.

A disturbance tracking south of Jamaica Wednesday morning – designated Invest 99L by the National Hurricane Center – is expected to organize into Tropical Storm Sara over the coming days and could strengthen into a powerful hurricane by this weekend as it hangs about off the coasts of Honduras and Nicaragua.

A significant late-season tropical system is poised to come together later this week and could strengthen into a formidable November hurricane by this weekend or early next week as it meanders in the western Caribbean.

A significant late-season tropical system is poised to come together later this week and could strengthen into a formidable November hurricane by this weekend or early next week as it meanders in the western Caribbean.

With Rafael quickly spinning down over the Gulf of Mexico this weekend – its thunderstorm activity wiped clear by a slug of dry air and hostile wind shear – we’d hope the hurricane season would finally come to its senses and move into its traditional November hibernation, but the Caribbean has other plans.

Rafael re-strengthened overnight to a major Category 3 hurricane over the central Gulf of Mexico, becoming the farthest west a Category 3 or stronger hurricane has been observed during the month of November.

Rafael strengthened into a major Category 3 hurricane with 115 mph winds shortly before striking the southern coast of western Cuba at 4:15 PM ET Wednesday near Playa Majana in Artemisa Province.

Rafael took advantage of a deep reservoir of warm water south of Cuba to rapidly intensify since yesterday and is expected to be a major (Category 3) hurricane before striking western Cuba later today.

Tropical Storm Rafael formed on Monday in the Caribbean – the 17th named storm of the busy 2024 Atlantic hurricane season – and is on track to impact the Cayman Islands on Tuesday and parts of western Cuba on Wednesday as a hurricane.

Tropical Storm Rafael has strengthened to near hurricane intensity as it barrels toward the Cayman Islands and Cuba, where it was forecast to hit as a full hurricane.

On Sunday, the National Hurricane Center initiated advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen, a tropical disturbance in the southwestern Caribbean forecast to develop into a named storm in the coming hours, possibly reaching hurricane status before impacting western Cuba by Wednesday.

Forecasters say Tropical Storm Rafael has formed in the Caribbean and will bring heavy rain to Jamaica and the Cayman Islands before strengthening to a hurricane and likely hitting Cuba.

A hurricane watch for the Cayman Islands and a tropical storm warning for Jamaica have been issued as a weather system in the Caribbean is expected to strengthen.

The next storm in the Atlantic is likely to spin up over the weekend or early next week out of the Central American Gyre, or CAG, the semi-permanent, sprawling area of spin that straddles the land areas separating the eastern Pacific and the Caribbean Sea on the Atlantic side -- the same feature responsible for so many of our devastating hurricanes in 2024 -- including the likes of Milton and Helene.

As we first detailed in this newsletter last Thursday, a tropical depression or named storm could come together by this weekend or early next week as it meanders around in the central and western Caribbean.