Rafael took advantage of a deep reservoir of warm water south of Cuba to rapidly intensify since yesterday and is expected to be a major (Category 3) hurricane before striking western Cuba later today.

On Sunday, the National Hurricane Center initiated advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen, a tropical disturbance in the southwestern Caribbean forecast to develop into a named storm in the coming hours, possibly reaching hurricane status before impacting western Cuba by Wednesday.

The next storm in the Atlantic is likely to spin up over the weekend or early next week out of the Central American Gyre, or CAG, the semi-permanent, sprawling area of spin that straddles the land areas separating the eastern Pacific and the Caribbean Sea on the Atlantic side -- the same feature responsible for so many of our devastating hurricanes in 2024 -- including the likes of Milton and Helene.

Overnight computer models waffled on the outlook for a disturbance we’ve been following in the southwestern and central Caribbean, softening its development prospects and pushing back the development window into early next week.

We continue to follow the progress of a broad area of low pressure over the southwestern Caribbean that could consolidate into a tropical depression or named storm later this week as it drifts northward toward the central Caribbean.

As we detailed a week ago in this newsletter, the Caribbean is expected to make another run at tropical development later this week or into the weekend as we turn the calendar to November.

After a banner start to October that included 3 simultaneous hurricanes (Kirk, Leslie, and Milton) during its first week – a first in our record books for the month of October – with more activity packed into one month than we see in some Augusts and Septembers (traditionally our busiest months) combined, including the strongest hurricane in almost two decades (Milton), a devastating Florida hurricane hit and a surprise hurricane (Oscar) – the smallest we’ve ever measured – last weekend, the tropics are finally simmering down to end the month.

The 2024 hurricane season has been exceptionally backloaded, with activity peaking during what is typically the downswing portion of the season.

Since official Atlantic tropical cyclone recordkeeping began some 174 years ago, nearly 600 tropical storms or hurricanes have struck the mainland U.S. shoreline during all months of the year, except for January, March, April and December. Of those landfalling storms, only about a dozen struck during the month of November.

After taking a slow, horseshoe-shaped dip across eastern Cuba over the past 36 hours and dumping over a foot of heavy rain – causing pockets of significant flooding – poorly-organized Oscar is picking up the pace and accelerating through the southeastern Bahamas and toward the western Atlantic.

It’s not often we see a colossal failure in hurricane forecasting, but over the weekend the sudden formation of Hurricane Oscar on Saturday near the Turks and Caicos off the southeastern Bahamas was a reminder why we watch every system carefully, especially those close to land during the peak months of the hurricane season.

Two disturbances we’ve been tracking this week – one in the western Caribbean and the other passing just north of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands today – will bring the threat of heavy rainfall to Central America and the Greater Antilles but neither will be a concern for the mainland U.S.

Since Milton’s demise, we’ve seen no active tropical systems anywhere in the Atlantic, the longest stretch of inactivity in a month and before the historic run of late-season activity that included 6 named storms, of which 5 became hurricanes and 3 of those Category 3 or stronger, capped off by Category 5 Milton, the most intense hurricane in nearly two decades.

We continue to follow a disturbance dubbed Invest 94L tracking westward through the central Atlantic. Though not unheard of, the almost due-west course from the deep tropical Atlantic is an unusual trajectory for a system this late in the season, when developing systems most often turn quickly north and east once they’re in the vicinity of the Caribbean.

Back at the beginning of October, we discussed what we anticipated to be a formal transition to dry season across South Florida around the middle of the month. As we detailed, the eagerly-awaited switch from South Florida’s rainy season to dry season isn’t only a boon for us in South Florida but an important milestone for all Americans living at the head of hurricane alley.

After its most active start to October on record and following a spate of 5 hurricanes – including 3 major hurricanes – in less than 2 weeks, the Atlantic is throttling back to a more reasonable pace for middle October.

Back around the traditional ramp up to the hurricane season peak in early September, lots was written about the hurricane season “bust” – alluding to what forecasters predicted to be one of the busiest hurricane seasons on record.

Only days after explosively strengthening into the most intense Gulf hurricane in nearly two decades, the eye of Hurricane Milton crossed west-central Florida’s coastline at Siesta Key near Sarasota – just 20 miles south of Tampa Bay – as a Category 3 hurricane with 120 mph winds around 8:30 p.m. local time Wednesday evening.

Hurricane Milton continued its dangerous trek as a Category 5 hurricane during the predawn hours Wednesday as it accelerated across the eastern Gulf toward Florida’s west coast.

Milton rapidly intensified into a Category 5 hurricane on Monday morning at a rate rarely seen and is on course to strike west-central Florida as one of the most impactful U.S. hurricanes in modern memory.

Hurricane Milton rapidly intensified Monday morning into a dangerous major hurricane over the southern Gulf of Mexico and is on track to deliver yet another devastating blow to the Sunshine State less than two weeks after Hurricane Helene ravaged parts of Florida’s west coast and sweeping Big Bend.

Tropical Storm Milton, formed on Saturday and strengthened into a hurricane Sunday before accelerating towards Florida’s west coast on Monday and Tuesday into Wednesday.

A broad area of low pressure and storminess we’ve been tracking over the Gulf of Mexico this week is expected to bring persistent rounds of heavy rain to much of the Florida peninsula – including across South Florida – beginning in earnest on Sunday and lasting through much of next week.

A broad area of low pressure and storminess we’ve been tracking over the Gulf of Mexico this week is expected to bring persistent rounds of heavy rain to much of the Florida peninsula – including across South Florida – beginning in earnest on Sunday and lasting through much of next week.

For those following the twists and turns of the topsy turvy hurricane season, you know that this season has been anything but business-as-usual.

The broad area of storminess we’ve been monitoring in the Caribbean has begun to pivot northward into the Gulf of Mexico, where some slow development is possible by this weekend or early next week.

We continue to monitor a disturbance lifting northward from the western Caribbean for possible development over the Gulf of Mexico by this weekend.

Another tropical system could form later this week over the northwestern Caribbean or Gulf of Mexico – in the vicinity of where Helene formed last week – and move toward the Gulf Coast for next weekend or early next week.

Storm surge records shattered along Florida’s Gulf Coast, with hurricane gusts and flash flood emergencies sweeping inland across the southeastern U.S.

Helene steadily strengthened into a Category 2 hurricane early Thursday morning and is poised to strike the northeastern Gulf coast tonight as a major hurricane, bringing catastrophic winds and storm surge into Florida’s Big Bend from east of Apalachicola to Florida’s Nature Coast, centered on Apalachee Bay.

Helene continued to steadily strengthen as it grazed the northeastern tip of Mexico’s Yucatán Peninsula Wednesday morning. The storm is on the cusp of becoming Hurricane Helene and is projected to deliver a devastating blow to Florida’s Gulf Coast tomorrow as a major hurricane.

Hurricane and storm surge watches were hoisted early Tuesday for a wide stretch of Florida’s Gulf Coast ahead of what’s forecast to be a major hurricane strike come late Thursday or early Friday.

Gov. Ron DeSantis has declared a state of emergency for 41 counties, including Monroe County, as an organizing cluster of storms over the western Caribbean is expected to gradually develop into a named storm over the next day or two and could quickly strengthen into a formidable hurricane.

A broad area of low pressure near the coast of Nicaragua today is expected to slowly organize this week and is likely to become a tropical depression or named storm by the middle of the week as it heads northward toward the U.S. Gulf Coast for Thursday into Friday.

Forecast models continue to advertise slow tropical development beginning next week across the northwestern Caribbean, with a system that could pivot into the southern Gulf of Mexico by the middle to latter part of the week.

On Thursday, the National Hurricane Center continued to raise the specter of tropical formation over the western Caribbean and southern Gulf of Mexico for the early to middle part of next week.

On Tuesday evening, the National Hurricane Center outlined an area of possible tropical development in the western Caribbean for early next week.

On the one hand, the hurricane season is on track to notably underdeliver on hyperactive seasonal forecasts – measured by overall tropical activity, not storm impacts – predicted by virtually all of the two dozen or so groups that issue such long-term forecasts, including NOAA, the parent agency of the National Weather Service.

A coastal storm has taken shape from a non-tropical area of low pressure attached to a dying cold front off the southeastern U.S., bringing heavy rains, coastal flooding, and tropical storm conditions (winds above 38 mph) to the Carolinas today.

It’s been an unexpected and unusual hurricane season. The season has produced 4 hurricanes so far, about what’s typical through middle September, but certainly below what we would’ve expected given the conditions going into this season and the historic seasonal forecasts.

Hurricane Francine made landfall in southern Louisiana on Wednesday evening as a 100 mph Category 2 hurricane, becoming the 7th hurricane to strike the state in 7 years and the first Louisiana hurricane landfall since Category 4 Ida struck in August 2021.

Francine strengthened into a hurricane by late Tuesday and continued to strengthen into the morning hours Wednesday over the northern Gulf of Mexico as it made its final approach to coastal Louisiana.

Final preparations are underway in coastal Louisiana where Francine is forecast to strike as a hurricane by tomorrow afternoon or evening.

A large disturbance over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico is organizing and is expected to become Tropical Storm Francine later today as it sets its sights on the northwestern Gulf Coast.

As we’ve discussed in recent newsletters, the tropical struggles across the Atlantic only days removed from the hurricane season peak – especially in a season forecast to bring exceptional activity – feel more unusual with each passing day.

Fall officially arrived this month – at least the fall most important to meteorologists (astronomical fall begins later this month) – and although South Floridians still have to wait another month before feeling some relief, the hottest months of the year are at least behind us.

The theme of the past few weeks continues across the Atlantic with several systems struggling to gain footing as dry and sinking air quickly squashes organized storminess.

A tropical wave producing thunderstorms was strengthening on Saturday afternoon in the Caribbean, according to the National Hurricane Center Miami’s tropical weather outlook.

Two Atlantic systems that we spotlighted in Wednesday’s newsletter are gaining support for development next week as forecast models trend toward an active start to September.

It’s been a while since we’ve seen any new candidates for development in the Atlantic, but this morning the National Hurricane Center is highlighting two areas.

If you follow our daily reading of the tea leaves, you know this time of year we don’t get many lucky breaks. We’ve been given a bonus cup of calm this week, but as we previewed in last Tuesday’s newsletter, things will begin to pick up again by this weekend as the calendar turns to September.

We don’t want to be the ones to tempt fate, or to jinx a good thing, but forecast models continue to advertise another strangely stormless week in the Atlantic, which could get us into early September without another tropical system.

We hit the ground running this hurricane season earlier than usual – with the earliest Category 5 hurricane on record and already two U.S. hurricane landfalls and one direct hurricane strike on Bermuda. Even if no other tropical systems form in the Atlantic for the next two weeks, we’ll still be running ahead of schedule for the year.

We all know how important warm waters are to hurricanes. The heat of the ocean is the power source of hurricanes and water temperature across the tropical Atlantic is the single biggest predictor of how active the hurricane season will be, especially by August when they explain a whopping 66% of the year-to-year difference in seasonal hurricane activity.

The large 100-mile-wide eye of Category 2 Hurricane Ernesto enveloped Bermuda around daybreak Saturday, bringing wind gusts as high as 109 mph to the archipelago and knocking out power to 75% of the island at its height.

Hurricane Ernesto continued to churn northward toward Bermuda on Friday, with its large, outer circulation bringing gusty winds already nearing tropical storm strength to parts of the archipelago on Friday morning.

A tropical disturbance we first alerted you to in this newsletter on Tuesday is poised to slowly develop as it nears the easternmost Caribbean islands next Monday into Tuesday.

The long and soggy saga of Debby continues today, though the storm is finally starting to move after days upon days of meandering along the southeast U.S. coastline.

Tropical Storm Debby’s hollowed out core – characterized by a wide, dry center nearly 60 miles across – is drifting eastward off the South Carolina coast this morning.

After moving ashore Florida’s Big Bend yesterday around daybreak as a Category 1 hurricane, Debby has crept through north Florida and southeast Georgia slower than most of us can run.

After lashing the west coast of Florida all day Sunday with gusty winds, tropical downpours, and damaging storm surge, the eye of Hurricane Debby came ashore around daybreak Monday near Steinhatchee in Florida’s Big Bend, only 9 miles southeast of where Category 3 Hurricane Idalia came ashore just 341 days ago.

Tropical Storm Debby, which formed Saturday afternoon, continues to strengthen this morning and is expected to become a hurricane before making landfall in Florida’s Big Bend tomorrow. Conditions will quickly deteriorate today along Florida’s Gulf Coast, with up to 10 feet of storm surge flooding possible into many of the same areas affected by Hurricane Idalia last August.

Late on Friday, the strong disturbance dubbed Potential Tropical Cyclone Four earlier in the day by the National Hurricane Center finally gained enough organization south of Cuba to be classified as a Tropical Depression. By Saturday morning, hurricane watches had been issued for Florida’s sweeping Big Bend, from just west of Apalachicola to near Crystal River.

On Thursday, the National Hurricane Center designated the strong tropical disturbance now moving across eastern Cuba Invest 97L, a procedural move that allowed NHC to begin running a specialized suite of computer models to better interpret its future strength and track.

In Wednesday morning’s newsletter, we discussed how the interplay between the robust tropical wave moving through the complex terrain of the northeastern Caribbean islands today and tomorrow would be crucial to its forecast this weekend.

Beginning last Wednesday we began previewing the possibility of development of a tropical disturbance nearing the Caribbean islands for this week and in Friday morning’s newsletter we discussed a more conducive configuration for development once the disturbance moves into the western Atlantic later this week.

It’s been a nice dry spell these past few weeks in the Atlantic – dry being the operative word with round after round of storm-suffocating dust that’s helped put the lid on tropical development.

The post-Beryl Atlantic hangover will keep the tropics bedridden for at least another week, with no development expected into the twilight days of July.

In the modern hurricane record – since satellites came around in the 1960s – most Julys observe at least one named storm, but about 1 in 3 Julys come and go without any new named storms. Additionally, most Julys – nearly 70% – pass by without any new hurricane formations.

With the Caribbean clearing out in the wake of stormy Invest 97L last week, it appears the tropical Atlantic is headed on hiatus, or perhaps even into hibernation until next hurricane season.

The disturbance formerly known as Invest 95L was classified a Potential Tropical Cyclone by the National Hurricane Center Sunday afternoon, which allowed the center to issue Tropical Storm Watches for Jamaica and Grand Cayman Island ahead of the organizing system.