Special Features

Tropical Storm Gabrielle is centered near 19.5N 49.5W at 18/0300 UTC or 775 nm east of the Northern Leeward Islands, and moving WNW at 14 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Seas are peaking at 16 to 18 ft just northeast of the center. Scattered moderate convection is noted swell northeast of the center from 20N to 22N between 43W and 47W. Gabrielle is expected to move in a west- northwest to northwest motion for the next few days. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours, but some gradual intensification is forecast over the weekend.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Gabrielle NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

Tropical Waves

A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 25W from 19N southward across the western Cabo Verde Islands, and moving west around 15 kt. Widely scattered moderate convection is noted from 14N to 16N between 25W and 28W.

A eastern Caribbean Sea tropical wave is near 68W from 22N southward across eastern Hispaniola to northwestern Venezuela. It is moving west at 15 to 20 kt. Widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring across Hispaniola, Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands and nearby waters.

A western Caribbean Sea tropical wave is near 87W from 21N southward across Honduras and western Nicaragua to the East Pacific. It is moving west around 10 kt. With abundant tropical moisture, scattered heavy showers and isolated strong thunderstorms are seen over the Gulf of Honduras, and the western parts of Honduras and Nicaragua.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the Senegal coast just south of Dakar, then curves southwestward across 07N25W to 08N38W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is seen near and south of the trough from 4N to 14N and east of 18W, and up to 160 nm south of the trough between 30W and 38W.

The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is generating isolated thunderstorms across Caribbean waters near Panama and northwestern Colombia.

Gulf Of America

A surface trough is over southern Florida. Convergent low-level winds to its south are coupling with modest upper-level divergent winds to trigger scattered heavy showers and isolated strong thunderstorms are dominating western Cuba, the Great Bahama Bank and the Florida Strait. Otherwise, a surface ridge extending southwestward from a 1018 mb high off the Carolinas dominates the rest of the Gulf. Gentle to moderate with locally fresh NE to E winds and 3 to 5 ft seas are evident at the Florida Straits, eastern Bay of Campeche/near Yucatan Peninsula and northwestern Gulf. Mainly gentle NE to ESE winds and seas at 1 to 3 ft prevail for the rest of the Gulf.

For the forecast, the aforementioned surface ridge will dominate the Gulf into the weekend, supporting gentle to moderate E winds along with slight seas. A mid and upper-level trough over the far southeastern Gulf will bring showers and thunderstorms for the remainder of the week.

Caribbean Sea

Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections for convection in the Caribbean Sea. Moderate to fresh easterly winds with 3 to 5 ft seas are present at the northwestern basin, Windward and Mona Passages, and near the ABC Islands. Light to gentle winds and seas at 1 to 2 ft are noted near Costa Rica, Panama and northwestern Colombia. Gentle with locally moderate ENE to ESE winds and 2 to 4 ft seas prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea.

For the forecast, the tropical wave along 87W will continue moving through the Gulf of Honduras, producing showers and thunderstorms into Thu. Another tropical wave in the eastern basin will bring showers and thunderstorms as it moves into the central basin over the next couple of days. Gentle to moderate trades and moderate seas will prevail into the weekend.

Atlantic Ocean

Refer to the Special Features section at the very beginning for details on Tropical Storm Gabrielle.

At the tropical Atlantic east of the Lesser Antilles, convergent southerly winds feeding toward Tropical Storm Gabrielle are causing scattered moderate to isolated strong convection from 11N to 17N between 45W and 52W. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin.

A subtropical high near 28N41W is sustaining gentle easterly winds and seas of 3 to 4 ft north of 27N between 35W and the northern Florida/southern Georgia coast. For the tropical Atlantic from 13N to 27N between 35W and the Bahamas/Lesser Antilles, outside the direct influence of Gabrielle, moderate to fresh NE to E to SE winds with 6 to 10 ft seas are evident. For the remainder of the Atlantic Basin west of 35W, gentle to moderate SE to SW winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, Gabrielle will move to 20.3N 51.0W Thu morning, 21.3N 52.9W Thu evening, 22.2N 54.9W Fri morning, 23.3N 56.9W Fri evening, 24.5N 58.8W Sat morning, and 25.8N 60.3W Sat evening. Gabrielle will strengthen to a hurricane over 28.9N 62.7W by late Sun.

Posted 2 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Chan