WEATHER ALERT
HURRICANE
Florida
South Florida
Hurricane hunters set to investigate disturbance off Southeast US
Read full article: Hurricane hunters set to investigate disturbance off Southeast USShowers and thunderstorms are becoming more concentrated around an area of low pressure – now designated Invest 92L – centered about 100 miles off the coast of northeast Florida.
UPDATES
For the North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.
This is the last regularly scheduled Tropical Weather Outlook of the 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Routine issuance of the Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on May 15, 2026. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant.
Posted 1 month, 1 week ago by NHC Forecaster Forecaster Bucci
Special Features
Gulf of America Gale Warning: A strong cold front extends from Tampa Bay, FL to eastern Veracruz, Mexico. NW winds to 45 kt, with seas to 22 ft, continues in the SW Gulf offshore of Veracruz, Mexico. Gale conditions are forecast to continue in this region through Monday. The front will weaken and stall from near western Cuba to the Yucatan Channel to the eastern Bay of Campeche by Mon evening. Conditions in the SW Gulf will gradually improve Mon night into Tue. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa/gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.
Monsoon Trough/ITCZ
The monsoon trough exits the coast of Liberia near 05N10W and continues to 04N17W. The ITCZ extends from 04N17W to 03N51W. Scattered moderate convection is from 02N to 07N between 25W and 50W.
Gulf Of America
Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information on a GALE WARNING.
As previously mentioned, strong cold front extends from Tampa Bay, FL to eastern Veracruz, Mexico. Outside of the GALE WARNING, strong to near-gale force northerly winds are behind the front across most of the basin, with seas ranging from 8-11 ft. Scattered showers are along the front. Moderate NE winds and slight seas are analyzed ahead of the front in the far SE Gulf and the Straits of Florida.
For the forecast, the front will continue to move across the basin today, bringing strong to near-gale force northerly winds and 8-11 ft seas to the SE Gulf. The front will then weaken and stall from near western Cuba to the Yucatan Channel to the eastern Bay of Campeche by Mon evening. Conditions in the SW Gulf will gradually improve Mon night into Tue. Moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail across the basin through early Wed. The next cold front could impact the basin with increasing winds and building seas by Wed night, with that front rapidly shifting SE of the basin Thu.
Caribbean Sea
The latest satellite scatterometer data indicates strong trades in the south-central Caribbean off the coast of Colombia, a result of the tight pressure gradient between the subtropical Atlantic ridge and lower pressures over South America. Seas are 8-10 ft in these strong trades, as captured in recent satellite altimeter data. Moderate to fresh trades prevail across the remainder of the central Caribbean, with 5-7 ft seas. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate trades and 3-5 ft seas prevail.
For the forecast, strong to near gale force NE to E winds will pulse offshore of NW Colombia through tonight due to the pressure gradient between high pressure N of the region and low pressure over northern Colombia, resulting in rough seas. After tonight, fresh to locally strong winds will prevail there. Pulsing moderate to fresh NE to E winds are forecast elsewhere in the central and SW Caribbean, including the Windward Passage and Hispaniola adjacent waters through at least the early part of the week. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds will prevail. A decaying cold front may move into or near the far NW Caribbean early this week where it will stall and wash out. Another cold front may move into the NW part of the basin Thu.
Atlantic Ocean
1028 mb high pressure is centered north of the area, and provides for moderate to locally fresh trades across the tropical and subtropical Atlantic Ocean. Seas are 4-7 ft, except south of 20N and east of 40W where seas are 8-9 ft. Weak surface troughs are from 20N57W to 28N54W and from 29N37W to 26N46W.
For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure N of the area will continue to move eastward ahead of a cold front forecast to emerge off the NE Florida coast later today. Fresh to strong NW winds and rough seas will follow this front, which is forecast to reach from Bermuda to the northern Bahamas by Mon morning. Thereafter, the front will become stationary as it dissipates Mon night into Tue. The next cold front may enter the NW waters by Wed night, reaching from near Bermuda to the SE Bahamas late Thu night, with associated gale winds possible N of 29N Thu night.
Posted 3 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Mahoney
