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Tropics Watch Potential

For the North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

This is the last regularly scheduled Tropical Weather Outlook of the 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Routine issuance of the Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on May 15, 2026. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant.

Posted 1 month, 1 week ago by NHC Forecaster Forecaster Bucci

Tropics Watch Satellite

Special Features

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: Strong to near gale force NE to E winds will pulse offshore of NW Colombia through Sun night due to the gradient between building high pressure N of the region and low pressure over northern Colombia, except minimal gale force until around sunrise this morning. Seas to 12 ft will occur within these winds. After Sun night, fresh to locally strong winds will prevail there.

Gulf of America Gale Warning: A strong cold front will move off the coast of Texas this morning. Strong to near-gale force N winds following the front will rapidly reach gale force near Tampico late this morning and afternoon, and in Veracruz adjacent waters this evening through Mon. Winds may peak around 45 kt near Veracruz. Seas will quickly build and likely peak at around 21 ft offshore of Veracruz Sun and Sun night. The front will weaken and stall from near western Cuba to the Yucatan Channel to the eastern Bay of Campeche by Mon evening. Conditions in the SW Gulf will gradually improve Mon night into Tue.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa/gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea near 10N14W and then continues to 06N18W. The ITCZ extends from 06N18W to 04N35W and to 01N50W near the coast of Brazil. Widely scattered moderate convection is observed mainly south of 08N.

Gulf Of America

A Gale Warning is in effect for the W-central Gulf and western Bay of Campeche area. Please read the Special Features section above for details.

A subtropical ridge over the western Atlantic extends southwestward to the Gulf of America. The pressure gradient between this ridge and lower pressures associated with a cold front over the southern United States result in moderate to fresh SE-S winds over much of the basin, especially east of 96W. Seas in these waters are 3-6 ft. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. Areas of dense fog are present within 20 nm of shore of SE Louisiana to nearshore of the western Florida Panhandle.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh SE winds will diminish this morning as a cold front near the Texas coast enters the basin. Strong to near- gale force N winds following the front will rapidly reach gale force near Tampico late this morning and afternoon, and in Veracruz adjacent waters this evening through Mon. Winds may peak around 45 kt near Veracruz. Seas will quickly build and likely peak at around 21 ft offshore of Veracruz Sun and Sun night. The front will weaken and stall from near western Cuba to the Yucatan Channel to the eastern Bay of Campeche by Mon evening. Conditions in the SW Gulf will gradually improve Mon night into Tue. Moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail across the basin through early Wed. The next cold front could impact the basin with increasing winds and building seas by Wed night.

Caribbean Sea

A Gale Warning is in effect the waters off NW Colombia. Please read the Special Features section above for details.

The tight pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge over the western Atlantic and lower pressures in NW South America results in strong to near gale-force NE winds in the south-central Caribbean. This was confirmed by earlier scatterometer satellite passes. Seas in these waters are 8-12 ft. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate seas prevail, except locally fresh to strong in the Lee of Cuba, across and through the approach to the Windward Passage, and offshore southern Haiti. No significant convection is noted across the Caribbean basin.

For the forecast, strong to near gale force NE to E winds will pulse offshore of NW Colombia through Sun night due to the gradient between building high pressure N of the region and low pressure over northern Colombia, except minimal gale force until around sunrise today. Seas to 12 ft will occur within these winds. After Sun night, fresh to locally strong winds will prevail there. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are forecast elsewhere in the central and SW Caribbean, including the Windward Passage and Hispaniola adjacent waters. Locally strong winds will be likely pulsing at night over the Windward Passage and S of Hispaniola through Sat night, with similar winds pulsing in the lee of Cuba early today and Sat night. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds will prevail, except for moderate to fresh winds near the Gulf of Honduras this morning. A decaying cold front may move into or near the far NW Caribbean early next week where it will stall and wash out.

Atlantic Ocean

A broad 1028 mb high pressure system centered northwest of Bermuda near 34N66W dominates much of the SW North Atlantic, west of 55W. A cold front extends from near 31N49W to 26N60W, where it becomes a frontal trough to 25N65W to 28N74W. Moderate to fresh NE-E winds and moderate seas are found west of a line from 31N50W to Puerto Rico. Meanwhile, the central and eastern tropical Atlantic waters are dominates by a 1032 mb high pressure system located northwest of Madeira. A tight pressure gradient forces fresh to strong easterly winds and moderate to rough seas across much of the waters east of 44W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure building and sliding eastward in the wake of a cold front that extends from 27N55W to 26N59W continuing as a frontal trough to 25N65W and 28N74W will support moderate to fresh NE winds across the waters E of the Bahamas, the Great Bahama Bank, and the approaches to the Windward Passage through Sun, with locally strong winds near the Windward Passage as the front washes out. A new cold front will emerge off the NE Florida coast Sun. Fresh to strong NW winds and rough seas will follow this front, which is forecast to reach from Bermuda to the northern Bahamas by Mon morning. Thereafter, the front will become stationary as it dissipates Mon night into Tue. The next cold front may enter the NW waters by Wed night.

Posted 0 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Lewitsky

Tropics Watch Sea Temperature