Special Features

Caribbean Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between a surface ridge N of the area and the Colombian low is supporting strong to gale force winds off Colombia. Seas with these winds are peaking near 11 ft. Winds will diminish below gale force early this morning.

Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 07N12W and extends southwestward to 05N16W. The ITCZ continues from 05N16W to 00N48W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 00N to 05N between 08W and 40W.

Gulf Of America

High pressure dominates the northern Gulf, anchored by a 1022 mb high centered just S of the Florida panhandle. A surface trough extends off the west coast of the Yucatan peninsula. The pressure gradient between these features is supporting fresh winds off the west coast of the Yucatan, where seas are in the 3-4 ft range. Light winds, and seas of 2 ft or less are in the vicinity of the high center. Gentle to moderate winds, and seas of 2-4 ft prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, the aforementioned area of high pressure will support gentle to moderate winds over much of the basin today. Winds will increase to moderate to fresh across the NW Gulf Thu, then further increase to fresh to strong Thu night into Fri while expanding in coverage before beginning to diminish Fri night. Seas generated by these winds will build to around 10 ft in the NW Gulf Fri and Fri night. A weak cold front may move into the NW Gulf late Sun night into early next week.

Caribbean Sea

Please refer to the Special Features section for details on a Gale Warning off the coast of Colombia.

Aside from the area of gale force winds, fresh to near gale winds are over the south central Caribbean, where seas are in the 8-10 ft range. Moderate to fresh winds, and seas of 6-8 ft prevail elsewhere E of 80W. Over the western Caribbean, gentle to moderate winds, and seas of 4-7 ft, are noted.

For the forecast, gale force winds off Colombia will diminish this morning. Winds off Colombia will then pulse to near gale force speeds tonight through Fri and to fresh to strong speeds for the remainder of the period. Fresh to strong winds will develop in the lee of Cuba, in the Windward Passage, over the waters between Cuba and Jamaica and south of Hispaniola from late Thu through this weekend.

Atlantic Ocean

High pressure dominates much of the Atlantic discussion waters, anchored by a 1038 mb high centered near 38N39W. Fresh to strong winds, and seas of 6-9 ft prevail over the waters E of 60W. Gentle to moderate winds, and seas of 3-6 ft, are found over the waters W of 60W.

For the forecast west of 55W, a cold front will enter the waters between northeast Florida and Bermuda today, and will shift eastward, moving east of 55W by Thu night. High pressure will build in the wake of the front, bringing an increase in winds across much of the waters S of 28N by the end of the week. Winds and seas will start to decrease this weekend as the high shifts eastward and weakens.

Posted 0 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Al