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Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the eastern Atlantic near 10N15W and continues to 07N20W. The ITCZ extends from 07N20W to 08N55W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is observed from 03N-13N and east of 25W. Scattered moderate convection has also developed from 08N to 11N between 25W and 40W.

Gulf Of America

A cold front extends from the Florida Big Bend to near Veracruz, Mexico. A pre-frontal trough extends from SW Florida to just W of the Florida Keys. Neither feature is producing convection at this time. Fresh N winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft are N of the front, except locally strong winds and rough seas have developed just offshore N of Veracruz, Mexico. Ahead of the front, gentle winds and slight seas dominate.

For the forecast, the cold front will move southward, reaching the south-central Gulf by Wed morning, and marine conditions N of the front will improve tonight. The front will stall and lift northward by late Wed, as another low pressure system forms over South Texas and the NW Gulf. Looking ahead, another cold front will enter the NW waters on Thu, and extend from SE Louisiana to near Tampico, Mexico Fri morning, then stall and lift north toward the northern Gulf on Sat.

Caribbean Sea

The subtropical ridge to the north has been disrupted by a trough N of N of Puerto Rico, creating a weak pressure gradient over the basin and leading to mainly gentle winds and slight seas over the basin. Convection is confined to offshore Panama to the S of 11N, where the eastern portion of the NE Pacific monsoon trough resides.

For the forecast, winds will continue to diminish across the basin tonight and Wed as the surface trough progresses westward just N of the basin, disrupting the influence of the subtropical ridge. However, winds will freshen up again late this week as the high pressure builds in north of the area. Another surface trough, located near 60W, will move across the Windward Islands into the eastern Caribbean tonight into Wed. Fresh to locally strong winds and locally rough seas follow this trough. The associated moisture will also bring some shower activity. Meanwhile, moderate to locally rough seas, in NE swell, will persist across the NE Caribbean passages through the week and into the weekend.

Atlantic Ocean

A surface trough just E of the Lesser Antilles is inducing scattered moderate convection from 10N to 15N between 57W and 60W. A deep layer trough, with a surface reflection along 60W N of 25N, is inducing a broad area of scattered moderate convection from 20N to 30N between 52W and 60W. Yet another surface trough that extends from 19N66W to 25N64W is no longer producing any convection. To the W of these features, W of 60W, light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas dominate until N of the Bahamas and W of 70W, where SW winds have increased to fresh to strong ahead of a cold front that is approaching the east coast of the United States. Seas have increased to 6 to 9 ft in these region.

For waters to the E of 60W, widespread fresh W winds dominate the basin, with seas of 7 to 10 ft. Areas of strong winds are present in the far eastern Atlantic in the vicinity of the Canary Islands and the Cabo Verde Islands as well has waters between those island chains and Africa.

For the forecast west of 55W, expect fresh to strong southerly winds and building seas across the area north of 29N and west of 72W ahead of a cold front that will reach the waters off the northeast Florida coast early this evening. The front will extend from near Bermuda to South Florida on Wed morning, and from 31N70W to the Straits of Florida by Thu morning. Meanwhile, fresh to strong easterly winds and rough seas follow a surface trough currently located just N of Puerto Rico. The trough will continue to move westward passing N of Hispaniola Wed and Thu. Winds and seas in the wake of the trough are gradually diminishing.

Posted 0 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Konarik