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Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 11N15W and continues southwestward to 09N19W, where it transitions to the ITCZ and continues to 09N30W to 08N37W to 08N50W and to 07N58W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is seen from 03N to 09N between 18W-25W. Scattered moderate convection is within 30 nm of the ITCZ between 26W and 28W.

Gulf Of America

A 1019 mb high pressure is centered near 27N89W. The pressure gradient in the area is allowing for mostly light to gentle anticyclonic winds across the basin, except for gentle to moderate northeast to east winds south of about 23N and east of 94W. Seas are generally 2 to 4 ft, except for lower seas of 1 to 3 ft in the NE Gulf. A stationary frontal boundary is analyzed from southeastern Louisiana to 28N95W and to inland South Texas. Satellite imagery shows scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms near the front west 95W from 26N to 28N. Patches of fog, some dense, are along and just offshore the Big Bend Florida coast.

For the forecast, the stationary front will lift northeastward as a warm front later today as low pressure develops near the Texas and Oklahoma panhandles. The eastern portion of this boundary is a cold front that is approaching the western Florida panhandle. It will move across the NE Gulf today into this evening. Expect fresh southerly flow off the Texas coast tonight through Mon night supported by the gradient between low pressure over northeast Mexico and high pressure that will be centered just offshore the Mid-Atlantic coast. These winds will diminish Tue ahead of a frontal boundary that will be nearing the Texas coast. A stronger reinforcing cold front will overtake the frontal boundary early Wed while emerging out over the NW Gulf. The cold front will then sweep to the southeast of the basin by late Thu, followed by fresh northeast winds and building seas. Scattered showers and thunderstorms may accompany the initial frontal boundary.

Caribbean Sea

The combination between high pressure north of the area over the western Atlantic and relatively lower pressure over northern Colombian low is resulting in fresh to strong trade winds over most of the central Caribbean as noted in overnight scatterometer satellite data. In addition, a ship observation reported strong northeast winds along the coast of Colombia at 08Z. Seas are 6 to 8 ft with these winds. Moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas are noted over the remainder of the basin. Satellite imagery shows a rather persistent area of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms confined to the western section of the basin roughly from 14N to 20N between 81W and 85W due to a trough in that part of the sea. This is activity may be producing gusty winds at times.

For the forecast, fresh to strong northeast to east winds will pulse offshore of northern Colombia each night and morning well into the upcoming week due to the pressure gradient resulting from the combination of high pressure over the western Atlantic and relatively lower pressures over northern Colombia and the south- central Caribbean. Rough seas can be expected with these winds. Elsewhere, the gradient will also support moderate to fresh trade winds along with moderate seas over the remainder of the basin through the period. The shower and thunderstorm activity over the western Caribbean may linger into late tonight.

Atlantic Ocean

A dissipating stationary front is analyzed from near 31N58W southwestward to 26N67W. No significant convection is associated with this front. Mainly light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas are on either side of the front. Otherwise, high pressure dominates the remainder of the western Atlantic, with a 1019 mb high pressure situated near the NW Bahamas. Overnight scatterometer satellite data passes depict moderate to fresh northeast to east winds south of about 23N west of 71W, including through the passages of the Bahama Islands. These winds reach to along the coast of Cuba and through the Straits of Florida. Fresh northeast winds are in the Windward Passage as also seen in the scatterometer satellite data passes.

Over the central Atlantic, a persistent trough extends from near 30N46W to 26N49W and to 18N52W. An upper-level low moving east- southeastward is near 25N51W. This feature is providing upper support for the low/trough. An area of moderate rain with embedded scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms is present from 21N to 31W between 43W and 51W. The pressure gradient between strong high pressure of 1030 mb centered to the northeast of the Azores and relatively lower pressures over NW Africa is sustaining mostly fresh northeast to east winds north of about 28N and east of 24W, including waters to the north of the Canary Islands. Seas of 8 to 10 ft in northeast to east swell are over this area. Moderate to fresh southeast to south winds are north of 22N between 33W and the aforementioned trough and the southwest periphery of the Azores high pressure. Seas are 8 to 10 ft with these winds. Otherwise, mostly moderate to fresh trades, with moderate seas are present across the remainder of the tropical Atlantic.

For the forecast west of 55W, weak high pressure off east- central Florida will shift southeastward through early Mon in response to a cold front that will move off the northeast Florida coast this morning. The front will reach from near Bermuda to Sebastian Inlet, Florida by early Mon. The eastern portion of the front will continue eastward and reach from 30N55W to 27N70W by early Tue, while the portion west of 70W starts to lift back north as a warm front. High pressure will shift eastward off the Mid- Atlantic coast during the week, with its related gradient supporting moderate to fresh northeast to east winds and moderate seas over the region, with large northwest swell following the front southeast of Bermuda. Looking ahead, winds and seas will diminish west of 70W by Wed, ahead of front expected to move off the northeast Florida coast early Thu. The front will reach from Bermuda to the Straits of Florida by late Thu night, followed by fresh northeast winds and building seas.

Posted 0 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Aguirre