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Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 11N15W and continues to 11N19W. The ITCZ extends from 11N19W to 09N40W and to 09N58W. Scattered moderate convection is present from 05N to 15N and east of 30W. Similar convection is observed from 07N to 14N and between 53W and 63W.

Gulf Of America

A weak cold front is nearing the Texas coast and the pressure gradient between this feature and high pressure off New England support moderate to locally fresh SE-S winds and moderate seas over much of the Gulf waters. No significant convection is noted in the basin.

For the forecast, the moderate to fresh southerly winds will decrease to gentle to moderate later today as high pressure off New England departs eastward. A stronger reinforcing cold front will overtake the aforementioned weak front early Wed, then move into the NW Gulf waters. The cold front will then sweep to the southeast of the basin by Thu night into Fri, followed by fresh to strong northeast winds and building seas into the weekend. Scattered showers and thunderstorms may accompany the frontal boundary.

Caribbean Sea

High pressure off New England continues to force fresh to strong easterly winds and rough seas in the central Caribbean. The strongest winds and highest seas are occurring off NW Colombia. Meanwhile, moderate to locally fresh and moderate seas prevail elsewhere in the basin. Divergence aloft is supporting scattered showers in the Gulf of Honduras and SW Caribbean.

For the forecast, the tight pressure gradient between high pressure north of the islands and lower pressures in NW Colombia will sustain fresh to strong easterly trade winds and rough seas in the central Caribbean through late this week. The strongest winds of 25 to 30 kt, and highest seas peaking near 12 ft are expected offshore Colombia mainly at night. In the remainder of the basin, the weather pattern will support moderate to fresh winds along with moderate seas through the period. Looking ahead, a cold front will enter the NW Caribbean on Fri, followed by strong winds and rough seas.

Atlantic Ocean

A weak cold front extends from near 31N58W to near 28N72W, where it becomes a stationary front that extends to near Cape Canaveral, FL. No significant convection is noted near the front. Moderate to fresh NE winds and seas of 4-6 ft follow these fronts. Farther east, a weak 1014 mb low pressure is near 31N47W. A surface trough extends from this low to 19N48W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are present north of 21N between 43W and 49W. In the east Atlantic, a surface trough is analyzed from 29N21W to 26N25W to 21N26W to 16N30W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are ongoing between the trough axis and the west coast of Africa. Scatterometer satellite data from a few hours ago indicates fresh to locally strong winds N of the trough, driven by the pressure gradient between the trough and high pressure to the north.

Elsewhere across the Atlantic away from the aforementioned features, moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas prevail across the vast majority of the basin. The exceptions are two regions, one north of 20N between 35W and 65W, and the other in the vicinity of the Canary Islands, where gentle to moderate trades and seas of 2-5 ft prevail due to weaker pressure gradients in these areas.

For the forecast west of 55W, the eastern portion of the aforementioned front will continue eastward and reach from 31N44W to 27N63W by tonight, while the portion west of 70W starts to lift north. High pressure located off New England will shift eastward following the front, supporting moderate to fresh northeast to east winds and moderate seas over the region. Looking ahead, winds and seas will diminish west of 70W by Wed, ahead of a stronger cold front expected to move off the northeast Florida coast Wed night. The front will reach from Bermuda to the Straits of Florida by early Fri, followed by fresh to strong NW winds and building seas through Fri night. Looking ahead, a tightened pressure gradient in the wake of the front is forecast to bring increasing winds and building seas across much of the forecast area during the upcoming weekend.

Posted 50 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Delgado