WEATHER ALERT
HURRICANE
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Hurricane hunters set to investigate disturbance off Southeast US
Read full article: Hurricane hunters set to investigate disturbance off Southeast USShowers and thunderstorms are becoming more concentrated around an area of low pressure – now designated Invest 92L – centered about 100 miles off the coast of northeast Florida.
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For the North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Dexter, located over the northwestern Atlantic Ocean.
Off the Southeastern United States: A weak surface trough currently located several hundred miles off the coast of the southeastern United States is expected to form an area of low pressure in a day or so. Thereafter, environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression could form by the latter portion of this week or weekend as as the low initially moves slowly westward, but turns more northward by this weekend. * Formation chance through 48 hours, low, 10 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days, medium, 40 percent.
Central Tropical Atlantic: A tropical wave over the far eastern tropical Atlantic is currently producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity, primarily to the southwest of the wave axis. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual development during the next few days, and a tropical depression could form late this week or over the weekend as the system moves generally west-northwestward across the central tropical or subtropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours, low, near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days, medium, 50 percent.
Posted 6 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Forecaster Papin
Tropical Waves
A tropical wave is in the eastern Atlantic with axis along 23W and from 08N-20N, moving west around 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection prevails across the southern half of the wave.
Monsoon Trough/ITCZ
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 20N16W, then extends southwestward to 09N44W. The ITCZ continues westward from 09N44W to 07N59W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 200 nm on either side of the boundaries and W of 26W.
Gulf Of America
A stationary front extends west-southwestward from a 1016 mb low near 31N86W to 30N89W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms continue over the coastal waters between the Florida Panhandle and SE Louisiana. A surface trough extends from 29N89W to 26N96W, and supports scattered moderate convection over the NW Gulf. Surface ridging and a relaxed pressure gradient support moderate or weaker SE winds over the basin along with slight seas.
For the forecast, the frontal boundary will remain stationary across the NE Gulf region through Wed while dissipating. Elsewhere, a weak ridge will prevail supporting mostly gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas. Pulsing fresh E winds are likely at night north and west of the Yucatan Peninsula tonight through Fri night, as a trough develops there daily and drifts westward.
Caribbean Sea
The pressure gradient between a low pressure over NW Colombia and high pressure to the NE of the northern Bahamas is supporting fresh to strong trade winds across the central basin along with rough seas. The same pressure gradient supports moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate seas in the NW Caribbean while winds over the E basin have diminished to mainly moderate speeds. Otherwise, a tropical wave moving across Guatemala and Yucatan is generating scattered showers in the Gulf of Honduras.
For the forecast, high pressure north of basin will continue to support fresh to strong winds and rough seas across the south-central Caribbean through tonight. Fresh to strong winds will also pulse across the Gulf of Honduras through tonight following the passage of a tropical wave across Central America. The high pressure will weaken by Thu, allowing winds and seas to diminish across the basin, leaving gentle breezes and slight seas across the northwest Caribbean, moderate to fresh trade winds and moderate seas elsewhere, and strong winds pulsing off Colombia at night.
Atlantic Ocean
A surface trough is analyzed in the central Bahamas are generating scattered moderate convection between 66W and 76W. The central and eastern subtropical Atlantic waters are under the influence of the Azores High and associated ridge, which is supporting moderate to fresh NE winds E of 30W and gentle to moderate winds across the remainder subtropical waters between 30W and 65W. Seas are moderate with these winds.
For the forecast west of 55W, weak low pressure between the northern Bahamas and Bermuda will continue to support gentle to moderate breezes and slight to moderate seas across the region, except for occasional fresh winds pulsing off Hispaniola.
Posted 2 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Era
