Special Features

Hurricane Rafael: Hurricane Rafael is centered near 23.5N 83.6W at 07/0300 UTC or 70 nm WNW of Havana Cuba, moving NW at 11 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 969 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 90 kt with gusts to 110 kt. Rafael is a Category 2 hurricane. Seas are peaking around 25 ft near the center. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted from 18N to 26N between 75W and 85W. Rafael is expected to have a general northwestward motion tonight. A turn toward the west at a slower forward speed is expected on Thursday, with this general motion continuing through Saturday. On the forecast track, Rafael is expected to move away from western Cuba over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico tonight. Rafael is then forecast to move over the southern Gulf of Mexico for the next few days. Some weakening is possible tonight and Thursday, with little change in strength expected on Friday. Additional rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches are expected into Thursday, leading to storm total accumulations of 12 inches across portions of western Cuba. This may lead to areas of flash flooding and mudslides, especially along the higher terrain. Swells generated by Rafael are expected to affect much of the northwestern Caribbean during the next day or so and will also spread across most of the Gulf of Mexico from east to west late this week into the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. For the latest Rafael NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory, visit www.hurricanes.gov for more information.

Tropical Waves

The axis of an Atlantic tropical wave is near 55W from 14N southward, moving westward at 10 kt. No significant convection is depicted at this time in association with this wave.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 11N15W and continues south-southwestward to near 07N15W where it transitions to the ITCZ. The ITCZ then continues from 07N15W southwestward to 05N25W, and then west-northwestward to 10N37W. Scattered moderate convection is observed within 200 NM south and north of the ITCZ between 14W and 40W.

Gulf Of Mexico

Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information about Hurricane Rafael.

A 1026 mb high is centered near 33N59W, while a surface trough extends across the central Gulf from 30N87W to 22N89W. The pressure gradient between these features and Hurricane Rafael to the southeast is supporting fresh to strong E winds across the SE Gulf and moderate to fresh E winds across the remainder of the Gulf east of 87W. Another surface trough extends over the western Gulf from southwestern Louisiana to just north of Veracruz, Mexico. Gentle to moderate winds across much of the central and western Gulf prevail. Seas over much of the Gulf waters are in the 4-6 ft range, with seas of 2-3 ft in the Bay of Campeche.

For the forecast, Hurricane Rafael is near 23.5N 83.6W at 10 PM EST, and is moving northwest at 11 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 90 kt with gusts to 110 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 969 mb. Rafael will move to 24.4N 84.9W Thu morning, 24.6N 86.7W Thu evening, 24.6N 88.5W Fri morning, 24.6N 89.8W Fri evening, 24.8N 90.9W Sat morning, and 25.0N 91.7W Sat evening. Rafael will weaken to a tropical storm near 24.8N 92.6W late Sun.

Caribbean Sea

Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information about Hurricane Rafael.

An deep layer trough over the eastern Caribbean is leading to the development of scattered showers and thunderstorms over the waters near Puerto Rico, the U.S. Virgin Islands and the Lesser Antilles. Winds in these areas are moderate to locally fresh. Aside from conditions driven by the deep layer trough and Hurricane Rafael, gentle to moderate E winds and slight seas prevail across much of the basin.

For the forecast, Hurricane Rafael is near 23.5N 83.6W at 10 PM EST, and is moving northwest at 11 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 90 kt with gusts to 110 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 969 mb. Rafael will move into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico overnight. Marine conditions will start to improve over the northwestern Caribbean tonight into early Thu afternoon as Rafael moved further from the area. Gentle to moderate trade winds and slight to moderate seas are forecast elsewhere, except for fresh NE winds over adjacent waters of Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic and the Windward Passage through early Fri. Otherwise, large NE to E swell is forecast to enter the Atlantic passages of the NE Caribbean Thu into Fri morning, then subsiding afterward.

Atlantic Ocean

The pressure gradient between Hurricane Rafael and strong high pressure north of the region is supporting fresh to strong easterly winds especially across the Bahamas and the Florida Straits. Rough seas are noted across the waters north of the Bahamas, with seas as high as 10 ft. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is depicted from 14N to 23N between 55W and the Lesser Antilles in association to a surface trough over the area. A cold front enters the discussion waters near 31N22W and extends to 23N37W, with the tail-end stationary from 23N37W to 20N52W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are depicted along the front, particularly between 21W and 35W. Fresh to strong NE winds are N of the front, particularly, from 19N to 27N between 42W and 70W. Seas over these waters are in the 10-13 ft range. A ridge over the eastern Atlantic waters is supporting light to gentle winds, and seas of 3-5 ft south of the front. The pressure gradient between the aforementioned ridge and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate to fresh E to NE winds and seas of 5-8 ft between the ITCZ and 17N.

For the forecast W of 55W, the pressure gradient between a broad ridge over the central and western subtropical Atlantic waters and Hurricane Rafael in the SE Gulf will support fresh to strong E to SE winds and rough seas across the Florida adjacent waters and offshore waters N and E of the Bahamas through early Thu. Winds and seas will gradually diminish to gentle to moderate speeds by Fri. A trough of low pressure is producing an area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms a couple hundred miles east-northeast of the northern Leeward Islands. This system is expected to move generally westward during the next few days, and an area of low pressure could form near the northern Leeward or Virgin Islands tonight or Thursday. Afterward, some gradual development of this system is possible toward the end of the week and into the weekend while it moves near or to the north of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico, and approaches the Southeast Bahamas.

Posted 0 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Krv