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Special Features

Hurricane Melissa is likely starting to rapidly intensify and expected to be a Major Hurricane on Sun. It is centered near 16.5N 75.6W at 26/0000 UTC or 110 nm SE of Kingston Jamaica, moving W at 3 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 971 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 85 kt with gusts to 105 kt. Peak seas are near 23 ft. Numerous moderate to strong convection is observed within 45 nm of center. Numerous moderate isolated strong convection is noted elsewhere from 13N to 19N between 72W and 77W. A slow westward motion is expected tonight through the end of the weekend. A turn to the north and northeast is forecast on Monday and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Melissa is expected to move near or over Jamaica during the weekend and early next week, and it could be near or over eastern Cuba by the middle of next week. Rapid intensification is forecast to continue over the next day or so and Melissa is forecast to become a major hurricane tomorrow and is expected to still be a major hurricane when making landfall in Jamaica early next week.

Melissa is expected to bring total rainfall of 15 to 30 inches to portions of southern Hispaniola and Jamaica into Wednesday, with local maxima of 40 inches possible. Additional heavy rainfall is likely beyond Wednesday, but exact storm totals are still uncertain. Catastrophic flash flooding and landslides are probable across portions of southern Hispaniola and Jamaica. For eastern Cuba, total rainfall of 6 to 12 inches, with local amounts to 18 inches, are expected into Wednesday resulting in life-threatening flash flooding and landslides. Additional heavy rainfall is likely beyond Wednesday, but exact storm totals are still uncertain. Life-threatening storm surge is becoming more likely along the south coast of Jamaica later in the weekend or early next week. Peak storm surge heights could reach 9 to 13 feet above ground level, near and to the east of where the center of Melissa makes landfall. This storm surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. There is a potential for significant storm surge along the southeast coast of Cuba early next week. Swells generated by Melissa are expected to affect portions of Hispaniola, Jamaica, and eastern Cuba during the next several days. Please consult products from your local weather office.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Melissa NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

Tropical Waves

A central Atlantic tropical extends from 19N42W to 08N47W moving westward at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is near the wave axis. This wave appears to be influenced by an upper level trough with axis roughly along 45W/46W. Scatterometer data indicated fresh to strong E to SE winds on the E side of the the wake, particularly from 12N to 20N between 37W and the wave axis.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the Senegal Coast near Dakar, then extends southwestward to 10N19W. The ITCZ continues from 10N19W to 07N30W to 07.5N40W, then resumes W of the above mentioned tropical wave from 10N51W to 10N62W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 11N between 29W and 52W.

Gulf Of America

High pressure of 1030 mb located over the Mid-Atlantic states extends a ridge across the Gulf waters, and supports fresh to strong E to SE across much of the basin. Seas are 5 to 7 ft over the eastern Gulf based on altimeter data, and 3 to 5 ft elsewhere. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are over the NW Gulf.

For the forecast, fresh to strong E winds and moderate seas will occur over the eastern basin and through the Florida Straits into early Sun as the pressure gradient prevails between high pressure in the northeastern United States and Hurricane Melissa in the Caribbean. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds are expected in the central and western Gulf into Sun morning as a low pressure system moves through the southern United States. A weak cold front will enter the northern Gulf Sun into Mon and drift southeastward, leading to moderate N to NE winds over the basin through early next week. Looking ahead, a strong cold front will move off the Texas coast Tue night and sweep through the southeast Gulf by Thu night. Strong winds and rough seas will follow the front, and winds may reach near-gale force along the coast of Mexico off Tampico and Veracruz Wed night.

Caribbean Sea

Attention remains focused on Hurricane Melissa forecast to be a Major Hurricane tomorrow. Please, see the Special Features section above for more details on this very dangerous hurricane.

The pressure gradient between Hurricane Melissa and strong high pressure over the Mid-Atlantic states supports fresh to locally strong NE winds in the lee of Cuba, including also the Windward Passage. Moderate to fresh SE winds are over the eastern Caribbean. Moderate winds are noted in the Gulf of Honduras and the SW Caribbean. Outside of Melissa, moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, Hurricane Melissa will move to 16.7N 75.9W Sun morning, 16.7N 76.5W Sun afternoon, 16.7N 77.2W Mon morning, 16.9N 77.6W Mon afternoon, 17.6N 77.4W Tue morning, and 18.8N 76.7W Tue afternoon. Melissa will change little in intensity as it moves to the 22.0N 73.4W Wed afternoon.

Atlantic Ocean

A stationary front extends from near Bermuda to the NW Bahamas and SE Florida. The pressure gradient between high pressure over the Mid-Atlantic states and Hurricane Melissa is supporting a large area of fresh to strong NE winds mainly W of 70W, including the Straits of Florida. Seas are 6 to 8 ft within these winds E of the Bahamas, and 7 to 10 ft in the Straits of Florida. Windy conditions and passing showers are affecting South Florida, and these conditions will persist on Sun.

Farther east, a surface trough extends from a weak low pressure located near 31N31W to 26N45W. Another surface trough is analyzed from 31N21W to 22n45W. Light to gentle winds are near these features. Elsewhere across the Atlantic forecast waters, moderate to locally fresh trades and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, fresh to occasionally strong E to NE winds will occur west of 70W through Sun morning as a tight pressure gradient prevails between high pressure building over the northeastern United States and Hurricane Melissa in the Caribbean. Rough seas will accompany these winds offshore of central Florida and north and east of the Bahamas. Winds and seas will slowly diminish Sun into early next week as the above mentioned frontal boundary lifts northward. By midweek, fresh to strong S to SW winds will develop north of 27N and east of 75W as a low pressure system pushes off the coast of the southeastern United States. As previously mentioned, Hurricane Melissa will move to 16.7N 75.9W Sun morning, 16.7N 76.5W Sun afternoon, 16.7N 77.2W Mon morning, 16.9N 77.6W Mon afternoon, 17.6N 77.4W Tue morning, and 18.8N 76.7W Tue afternoon. Melissa will change little in intensity as it moves to the 22.0N 73.4W Wed afternoon. As Melissa moves across the Atlantic waters, possibly W of 60W by the middle of the next week, expect increasing winds and building seas near where Melissa tracks. Looking ahead, a strong reinforcing cold front will move off the northeast Florida coast by late Wed.

Posted 2 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Gr