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Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 07N13W and continues southwestward to 05N16W. The ITCZ continues from 05N16W to 02N37W to near 03N49W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 00N to 10N between 26W and 40W.

Gulf Of America

High pressure prevails over the Gulf waters. Fresh to locally strong winds are over the SE Gulf. Moderate to fresh winds are SE of a line from N Florida to Veracruz, Mexico. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the 6-8 ft range over the SE Gulf and over the Bay of Campeche. Elsewhere, seas of 4-6 ft are noted.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh NE winds and rough seas will continue in the Bay of Campeche and the southeastern Gulf through this evening, in the wake of a front that has stalled over the northwestern Caribbean. Elsewhere, moderate to locally fresh W to NW winds and moderate seas will develop in the northeastern basin by Wed ahead of a cold front moving through the southern United States. The front is slated to enter the northern Gulf by early Thu, with winds turning to the N in the wake of the front. Otherwise, moderate or weaker winds and slight seas are expected over the remainder of the Gulf into this weekend as weak high pressure prevails over the basin.

Caribbean Sea

A stationary front is analyzed from near western Cuba to the Yucatan Peninsula. Scattered moderate convection is found along the stationary front. Moderate to fresh winds prevail over the central and eastern Caribbean with light to gentle winds elsewhere. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range over the central and eastern Caribbean, and 2-4 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh E winds and moderate seas will prevail over the central and eastern Caribbean today. Widespread fresh trades and rough seas are expected to develop over this region on Wed as a tightening pressure gradient develops between the Colombian low, a stalled front in the northwest basin and building high pressure in the central Atlantic. Winds will pulse to strong speeds offshore of northern Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela nightly through this weekend, and winds may reach near-gale force at times. Elsewhere, fresh to locally strong trades will prevail over the Atlantic waters and through the passages into this weekend. A new E swell will support rough seas over this region Wed through this weekend.

Atlantic Ocean

A cold front extends from southeast of Bermuda through the central Bahamas. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted along the front. Fresh to near gale winds are N of 27N and E of the front to 46W. Fresh to strong winds are N of 27N and W of the front to 70W. Seas of 8-11 ft are over these waters. Gentle to moderate winds are elsewhere west of the front, with seas of 4-7 ft, except to 9 ft north of 30W. The remainder of the discussion waters are dominated by high pressure, anchored by a 1021 mb high centered near 27N33W. Light to gentle winds are in the vicinity of the high center. Moderate to fresh winds prevail S of 20N. Gentle to moderate winds are noted elsewhere. Seas are in the 8-12 ft range in NW to N swell east of 50W, and 5-7 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, the front will progress eastward through the central Atlantic this week. Strong to locally near-gale force SW winds and rough seas will occur north of 28N and east of 60W ahead of the cold front through late tonight, with widespread fresh to strong W to NW winds expected in the wake of the front north of 30N and east of 65W. Winds will subside from west to east tonight into early Wed. NW swell associated with this front will expand southeastward over the northwestern tropical Atlantic through Wed, supporting rough seas north of 27N by late tonight, and north of 25N by Wed afternoon. Very rough seas over 12 ft will be possible north of 30N and east of 70W into Wed afternoon. Seas will slowly subside from west to east, west of 65W, into early Thu. Fresh to strong SW winds and rough seas will develop offshore of northern Florida by Wed evening, ahead of a cold front moving over the southern United States. The cold front is slated to push offshore early Thu, with fresh to strong NW winds and rough seas expected in the wake of the front.

Posted 0 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Al