Special Features

East Atlantic Gale Warning: Meteo-France has issued a Gale Warning for the AGADIR Zone. N winds to Force 8 will prevail from now through 20/0600 UTC, with 10-12 ft seas. For more information, please see the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST and WARNING issued by Meteo-France at website: https://wwmiws.wmo.int/index.php/metareas/affiche/2

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 07N11W, then continues to 03N17W. The ITCZ extends from 03N17W to 01S50W. Scattered showers are in the vicinity of both boundaries, with scattered strong convection evident inland over Africa.

Gulf Of America

Strong high pressure centered near Bermuda extends across the Gulf of America. The pressure gradient between the high pressure and lower pressure over Mexico and Texas is producing fresh to strong SE winds and 4-7 ft seas across most of the Gulf. In the NW Gulf near 26N94W, peak seas are analyzed to 8 ft. Strong to near gale force E winds and seas to 8 ft are noted in the Straits of Florida. Scattered showers are evident on satellite in the W Gulf.

For the forecast, fresh to strong E winds will pulse across portions of the SW Gulf as a trough moves NW off the Yucatan Peninsula each afternoon and evening into Mon. Fresh to strong E winds and rough seas will persist in the Florida Straits into early next week.

Caribbean Sea

A weak surface trough persists across the Virgin Islands, with a few showers in the vicinity. The pressure gradient between the Atlantic subtropical high and lower pressure over South America results in fresh trades across the central Caribbean, with strong trades detected by satellite scatterometer south of Hispaniola to 15N and in the south-central Caribbean off the coast of Colombia. Seas in these areas of strong winds are 7-10 ft. Fresh trades are also analyzed in the W Caribbean. Outside of the areas noted above, seas are 4-7 ft in the central and western Caribbean. The eastern Caribbean is relatively calmer, with gentle to moderate trades and 2-4 ft seas.

For the forecast, strong high pressure north of the basin will support fresh to strong NE winds across the central and western Caribbean through early next week before diminishing through the middle of next week. Near- gale force winds will pulse off Colombia during the overnight hours, accompanied by rough seas. Large northerly swell will impact the Mona and Anegada passages by Sun.

Atlantic Ocean

1020 mb low pressure is near 30N54W. A surface trough extends from the low pressure to the Virgin Islands. Fresh to strong N to NE winds prevail west of the low and trough, building 8-9 ft seas in N swell across waters from 20N to 31N between 57W and 74W. Elsewhere across the Atlantic, moderate to locally fresh trades and 4-7 ft seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, fresh to strong NE to E winds and rough seas will continue through the weekend west of the aforementioned surface trough from the Bahamas to the Greater Antilles. Winds and seas will slowly diminish west of 70W early next week, but closer to the trough, where weak low pressure will also meander, strong winds and rough seas could prevail.

Posted 2 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Mahoney