Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W and continues southwestward to 04N19W. The ITCZ stretches from 04N19W to 00N30W to 00N49W. Scattered moderate convection is present south of 06N and between Africa and NE Brazil.

Gulf Of America

A stationary front extends from a 1011 mb low pressure centered over central Mississippi to the northern Yucatan Peninsula. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms, with gusty winds near gale force in the strongest thunderstorms, are ahead of the front over the eastern Gulf. Moderate to fresh SE to S winds prevail across the eastern Gulf ahead of the front, with 3-5 ft seas. West of the front, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast, pulsing fresh to occasionally strong S-SE winds are expected this morning and afternoon ahead of the front. Elsewhere, pulsing moderate to fresh W-NW winds will occur behind the cold front across the western Gulf today and Mon. Looking ahead, the front is slated to exit the basin early next week, allowing high pressure to build in the Gulf of America. Fresh to locally strong southerly flow is forecast in the NW Gulf waters Tue into Wed.

Caribbean Sea

A stationary front over Yucatan is producing a line of showers and isolated thunderstorms over the NW Caribbean, especially west of 85W. Similar convection is noted in the SW Caribbean. Generally dry conditions are seen elsewhere. The subtropical ridge north of the Caribbean supports fresh to strong easterly trade winds in the central portion of the basin. Seas in these waters are 7-10 ft. Moderate to fresh easterly breezes and moderate seas are occurring in the eastern Caribbean. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are present elsewhere.

For the forecast, high pressure north of the Greater Antilles will force fresh to strong easterly trade winds across the central Caribbean, including through the Windward Passage, through early next week. Periods of near-gale force winds will be possible offshore of NW Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela. Rough seas will accompany these winds, with the highest seas expected near and to the west of the strongest winds. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas are forecast in the eastern Caribbean during the next several days. Rough seas are expected through the Atlantic passages in the Leeward Islands early in the week.

Atlantic Ocean

The tropical Atlantic is under the influence of a broad subtropical ridge located between Bermuda and the Azores. The pressure gradient between this ridge and lower pressures in the deep tropics result in moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate to rough seas south of 25N and east of 65W. Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds and moderate seas are noted off Florida, especially west of 77W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast west of 55W, moderate to locally fresh SE-S winds are forecast today off Florida as the pressure gradient tightens between high pressure in the western Atlantic and a complex low pressure system in the SE United States. Strong S to SE winds and locally rough seas are expected Mon into early Tue offshore central and N Florida ahead of a cold front associated with the low pressure system. The cold front will enter the western Atlantic and lift northeastward by midweek. The building subtropical ridge will support moderate to fresh trade winds and moderate to rough seas for areas south of 25N through much of the workweek.

Posted 0 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Delgado