Special Features

Tropical Storm Jerry is centered near 13.3N 50.7W at 08/0900 UTC or 775 nm ESE of the Northern Leeward Islands, moving WNW at 20 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed remains 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Seas are peaking around 22 ft north and east of the center. Numerous moderate to strong convection within 90 nm SE of the center, while scattered moderate isolated strong convection is elsewhere from 08N to 13N between 46.5W and 51W. The fast motion of Jerry and moderate westerly vertical wind shear have caused the low level center of Jerry to become exposed just to the NW of the strong convection, and is preventing further intensification at this time. A general W-NW motion is expected to continue with a decrease in forward speed during the next couple of days, followed by a turn toward the north-northwest and north Thu night through Friday. On the forecast track, the core of the system is expected to be near or to the north of the northern Leeward Islands late Thursday and Friday. Strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and Jerry is expected to become a hurricane by Thursday afternoon. On Thursday, 2 to 4 inches of rain are expected across the Leeward Islands due to Jerry. This rainfall brings a risk of flash flooding, especially in areas of higher terrain. Swells generated by Jerry are expected to reach the Leeward and Windward Islands on Thursday, then spread westward toward the Greater Antilles on Friday. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML for more details. For the latest Forecast/Advisory on Jerry, please visit website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/cyclones/ for more information.

Significant Rainfall Across Eastern Mexico: An upper-level low and its related surface trough will gradually drift westward across the Bay of Campeche toward eastern Mexico over the next few days. Aided by abundant tropical moisture across the region, there is a high potential for heavy rain for the coastal areas from southern Tamaulipas State southward to southern Veracruz State, including the eastern parts of San Luis Potosl, Hidalgo and Puebla States. The heaviest rainfalls are expected near the Tamaulipas/San Luis Potosi border, and across northern and central Veracruz State. With the ground in the region already saturated from earlier rainfall, this will greatly increase the chance for flash and urban flooding. Please stay up to date with the latest forecast and possible flood statements from your local weather agency.

Tropical Waves

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 24W from 23N southward, and moving west at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm along the monsoon trough near the wave between 21W and 30W.

A tropical wave is over the eastern Caribbean along 66W, moving west around 10 kt. Scattered to numerous moderate isolated strong convection is active from 14N to 24N between 60W and 70W as the wave interacts with an upper level low over the Mona Passage.

A tropical wave is over the western Caribbean along 77W, moving west at 5 to 10 kt. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 16N to 20N between 75W and 79W.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 18N16W, then curves southwestward to 06N30W. The ITCZ extends from 06N30W to 04.5N42W. Scattered moderate convection is present from 01N to 07.5N between 27W and 39W.

Gulf Of America

Please refer to the Special Features section on potential heavy rain across eastern Mexico.

Widely scattered moderate convection dots the SE Gulf including the Straits of Florida in association with an E to W trough across the area. Moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds are found over most of the Gulf from 24N to 29N, with seas 4 to 6 ft. Scattered to numerous moderate isolated strong convection and fresh to locally strong NE to E winds are found across the Bay of Campeche and the southwest Gulf due to a surface trough across the area interacting favorably with an upper low over Mexico to its west. Seas are 4 to 7 ft in this area. Some slow development of this system is possible before it moves inland over southern Mexico later today or early Thursday. Regardless of development, areas of heavy rain and gusty winds are likely across portions of southern Mexico during the next day or so. Gentle to moderate breezes and 2 to 3 ft are noted elsewhere.

For the forecast, high pressure across the western Atlantic will maintain a modest ridge southwestward across the northern Gulf through Thu. A cold front will sink southward across the northern Gulf Thu night through Sat and produce fresh to strong NE winds across northeastern portions of the basin. A trough of low pressure located along the western Yucatan Peninsula is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms across southwest portions of the Gulf. This system is expected to move westward, and some slow development is possible before it moves inland over southern Mexico late Wednesday or early Thursday. Regardless of development, showers and thunderstorms and strong gusty winds are likely across the southwestern Gulf through Thu. This system has a low chance of development in the next 48 hours.

Caribbean Sea

Please read the Special Features section about newly formed Tropical Storm Jerry in the central tropical Atlantic which may affect the northern Leeward Islands toward the weekend.

A weak pressure gradient prevail across the Caribbean this morning, south of a lingering frontal trough across the Atlantic north of the basin along 24N-26N. Gentle to moderate mainly easterly breezes prevail across the basin, except for moderate to locally fresh winds off the coast of Colombia and the Gulf of Honduras. Fading NE swell from the Atlantic continues to bleed through the Mona and Anegada Passages, supporting 4 to 5 ft combined seas, and reaching the coast of central Venezuela and northeast Colombia. Elsewhere, generally 2 to 4 ft seas are noted across the basin.

For the forecast, moderate trade winds across the south-central Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras will continues through early Thu. Tropical Storm Jerry is near 12.8N 48.7W at 5 AM EDT, moving west-northwest at 20 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 1003 mb. Jerry is expected to gradually intensify, reaching near 14.2N 53.4W Wed afternoon, strengthen to a hurricane near 17.3N 59.5W Thu afternoon, reach near 21.1N 62.9W Fri afternoon, and near 23.6N 63.2W Fri night. Jerry is then expected to move northward and away from the region. Fresh southerly winds will sweep across the Caribbean E of 65W Thu night through early Sat as Jerry passes just E of the Leeward Islands.

Atlantic Ocean

Please refer to the Special Features section at the very beginning on newly formed Tropical Storm Jerry.

A stationary front extends southwestward from the northeastern Atlantic across 31N40W to 24N63W, then continues as a shearline across the northwest Bahamas. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are active along the front E of 70W. 1028 mb high pressure is centered over the NW Atlantic near 37N57W. The pressure gradient between the associated ridge and the lingering front is producing fresh E winds and 6 to 9 ft seas north of the front to 32N. An E to W surface trough is also over the Bahamas supporting widely scattered moderate convection across the area. South of the front, an upper level low is across the Atlantic waters north of the Mona Passage, and is interacting with the northern portion of a Caribbean tropical wave. This has been producing scattered to numerous moderate to strong convection most of the night from the northern Leeward Islands to the front between 60W and 70W.

Farther east, fresh to strong NE winds and 7 to 10 ft seas are noted over the eastern Atlantic, mainly north of 15N and east of 30W. Saharan dust accompanies a tropical wave is noted in this region. Gentle to moderate breezes and 5 to 7 ft seas primarily in northerly swell persist elsewhere, outside the main impact area of Jerry.

For the forecast west of 55W, fresh NE to E winds prevail north of a stationary front extending from the central Atlantic near 26N55W to 24N63W then through the NW Bahamas, and will gradually diminish through Thu as the front drifts northward and dissipates. Tropical Storm Jerry is near 12.8N 48.7W at 5 AM EDT, moving west-northwest at 20 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 1003 mb. Jerry is expected to gradually intensify, reaching near 14.2N 53.4W Wed afternoon, strengthen to a hurricane near 17.3N 59.5W Thu afternoon, reach near 21.1N 62.9W Fri afternoon, near 23.6N 63.2W Fri night, and near 28.3N 63.0W Sat night. Jerry will then begin to gradually weaken as it moves NE and exits to the north of 31N early Mon. Low pressure is expected to develop offshore of NE Florida and Georgia Sat and move NE through the weekend.

Posted 23 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Stripling