Special Features

Caribbean Gale Warning: A strong ridge north of the area will continue to support fresh to strong trade winds across the south- central Caribbean. Winds will pulse to gale-force each night offshore of Colombia through early next week. Peak seas with these winds are expected to be at or near 12 ft.

Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Liberia near 06N10W to 04N15W. The ITCZ continues from 04N15W to 02S37W. Scattered moderate convection and thunderstorms are ongoing from 08S to 04N between 21W and 44W.

Gulf Of Mexico

Surface ridging associated with a 1021 mb high pressure centered off Cedar Key, Florida near 29N83W extends basin-wide. A surface trough prevails over the eastern Bay of Campeche producing isolated showers, and supporting moderate winds. A tighter pressure gradient over the SE Gulf is also supporting moderate E to SE winds through the Florida Straits and the Yucatan Channel. Seas across the basin are slight, except moderate over NW Cuba adjacent waters.

For the forecast, fresh to locally strong NE to E winds will occur each afternoon and evening offshore of the Yucatan Peninsula and through the Florida Straits as a surface trough develops over the Yucatan Peninsula daily and moves westward towards Tampico and Veracruz. Otherwise, high pressure over the remainder of the basin will support gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas through early next week.

Caribbean Sea

See the Special Feature Section for details on an ongoing Gale Warning off the coast of Colombia.

A broad subtropical ridge north of the area is supporting fresh to strong NE to E winds across the central and southwest Caribbean, the lee of Cuba and Hispaniola, and the Windward Passage. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds prevail elsewhere along with moderate seas.

For the forecast, winds will pulse to gale force each night and early morning offshore of Colombia as a strong pressure gradient prevails between high pressure over the western Atlantic and low pressure over northwestern Colombia. Locally rough seas will be possible near and to the west of the strongest winds. Fresh E to NE trade winds and rough seas are expected across the remainder southwestern and central Caribbean through early next week, with winds pulsing to strong speeds through the Windward Passage, in the Gulf of Venezuela, downwind of Hispaniola and in the lee of Cuba. Moderate to locally fresh NE winds will occur across the remainder of the basin. East swell developing today will lead to rough seas near the Windward and Leeward Islands and their passages into the eastern Caribbean Sea through Mon night.

Atlantic Ocean

Surface ridging prevails over the western and eastern subtropical Atlantic waters while the tail of a cold front continues to move eastward over the central Atlantic. The front extends from 31N52W to 27N61W. A surface trough is ahead of the front from 30N49W to 25N57W with isolated showers. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are ongoing behind the front between 55W to 72W with mainly moderate seas. Winds of same magnitude and direction are also ongoing over the subtropical waters E of 30W where rough seas to 9 ft are present. Otherwise, moderate to fresh NE to E winds are across the tropical Atlantic with locally strong NE winds just west of the Cape Verde Islands. Seas over the tropics are 8 to 9 ft.

For the forecast west of 55W, moderate to fresh E trade winds will prevail south of 25N through Mon night. An increasing pressure gradient due to building high pressure in the western Atlantic will support moderate to fresh NE winds north of 25N and east of 70W through Fri morning. Winds will diminish in this region thereafter, with gentle to moderate winds continuing into early next week. Developing east swell will lead to rough seas NE of the Leeward Islands and NE of Puerto Rico this evening through Sun.

Posted 5 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Ramos