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Special Features

Gulf of America Gale Warning: A strong cold front will move into the NW Gulf early this morning, then quickly move SE through the basin and exit by Mon evening. Strong to near gale-force N to NE winds and rough seas can be expected behind the front, with gale force winds and very rough seas offshore of Veracruz Mon morning through Mon night. Gale force winds are forecast to begin at 10/1200 UTC and end 11/03 UTC. Peak seas off Veracruz are forecast to build to 16 ft by Mon evening. Otherwise, there is a potential for gust to gale force winds for the NW Gulf beginning later this morning and continuing through Mon morning. Conditions will improve basin-wide by Tue evening. For more information, please see the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more information.

Significant Rainfall over Central America: A shearline is expected to form this afternoon over the NW Caribbean Sea and Honduras, enhancing moisture convergence across Guatemala, Belize, Honduras, and Nicaragua. The shearline will continue moving south on Monday, and will interact with a developing low off the coasts of Nicaragua and Costa Rica by Tuesday morning, resulting in enhanced moisture convergence. A potent cold front will then arrive in Guatemala, Honduras, and Belize on Tuesday morning, after which it will become stationary and linger across the region through Thursday. Significant rainfall over the course of several days will be possible as a result, and will raise concerns for life-threatening flash flooding and landslides. This information was provided by the International Desk at the Weather Prediction Center. Please refer to your local meteorological service for more details.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough is analyzed inland over Africa. The ITCZ extends from 12N16W to 07N34W to 01N50W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring within 120 nm from the ITCZ between the coast of Africa and 47W.

Gulf Of America

Ridging extends over the basin, supporting moderate or weaker winds and slight seas. Isolated showers are occurring across the NE Gulf.

For the forecast, a strong cold front will move into the NW Gulf early this morning, then quickly move SE through the basin and exit by Mon evening. Strong to near gale-force N to NE winds and rough seas can be expected behind the front, with gale force winds and very rough seas offshore of Veracruz Mon morning through Mon night. There is a potential for gust to gale force winds for the NW Gulf beginning later this morning and continuing through Mon morning. Conditions will improve basin-wide by Tue evening.

Caribbean Sea

The persistent surface trough in the western Caribbean continues to support scattered moderate convection and tstms, across the offshore waters of Honduras, Nicaragua, Costa Rica, and Panama. A second surface trough is moving across the E Caribbean and through Puerto Rico along with scattered showers and isolated tstms. Otherwise, a prevalent ridge extending across the northern basin continues to tighten the gradient across the eastern and central Caribbean, thus supporting the continuation of fresh trades and moderate seas to 7 ft in these regions. Moderate or weaker trades are ongoing in the NW basin with slight seas.

For the forecast, locally strong winds and rough seas are expected in the south-central Caribbean through Mon night. Rough seas in east swell over the tropical Atlantic waters east of the Lesser Antilles will gradually subside through Tue morning. A strong cold front will enter the NW Caribbean waters Mon afternoon, bringing strong to near gale force N winds and rough seas in its wake. The front will stall from eastern Cuba to eastern Honduras late Tue and gradually weaken through Wed evening. Aside from the strong winds and seas, the front will support the development of heavy rainfall and thunderstorms over Central America and adjacent waters through Thu.

Atlantic Ocean

Scattered showers and isolated tstms are ongoing offshore NE and central Florida ahead of an approaching cold front entering the Gulf of America this morning. A surface trough is just E of the Turks and Caicos generating scattered to isolated showers across the Bahamas offshore waters. The remainder of the subtropical Atlantic is under the influence of the Azores High that is anchored by a 1028 mb high near 34N40W. From 20N to 27N and E of 53W, winds are moderate to fresh from the NE to E and seas are 8 to 11 ft in long period NW swell. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are ongoing elsewhere N of 20N and W of 53W.

For the forecast west of 55W, moderate to fresh S to SW winds developing offshore of NE Florida this morning will reach fresh to strong speeds tonight into Mon ahead of a strong cold front that will push off the SE U.S. Sun night. The front will progress SE and reach from Bermuda to E Cuba Tue afternoon, with the southern portion of the front stalling from 27N65W to E Cuba Tue evening into Wed. Strong to gale-force winds and rough to very rough seas are expected behind the front Mon evening through late Tue. Gale conditions in W to NW winds are expected along and N of 30N Mon evening into late Tue, for the offshore waters W of 65W. Winds then will gradually diminish through Wed.

Posted 3 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Ramos