Back around the traditional ramp up to the hurricane season peak in early September, lots was written about the hurricane season “bust” – alluding to what forecasters predicted to be one of the busiest hurricane seasons on record.
At the time, the Atlantic had gone nearly the entire 3-week stretch leading up to the peak of the season without any active tropical depressions, storms, or hurricanes – the first time that’d happened since at least the Great Depression. It was confounding, not just for spectators but for the scientists who’d issued those seasonal forecasts.
But that all changed with Francine on September 9th. Francine not only broke the dry spell but quickly struck south Louisiana as the 3rd U.S. hurricane landfall of 2024, by September 11th, already doubling the average number of annual U.S. hurricane landfalls.
Two weeks after Francine hit, Helene formed and became the 4th U.S. hurricane landfall and first major (Category 3 or stronger) U.S. hurricane landfall of the season, wrecking the Florida Big Bend and its west coast before wiping out entire mountain communities with catastrophic floods.
Then came Category 4 Kirk, Category 2 Leslie, and Category 5 Milton in the span of the same week, with Milton becoming the 5th U.S. hurricane and second major (Category 3 or stronger) hurricane to strike the U.S. this season. Only 6 other hurricane seasons (1886, 1893, 1985, 2004, 2005, and 2020) in 174 years of recordkeeping are known to have had as many mainland U.S. hurricane landfalls.
It’s been a remarkable turnaround from a season that’s arrived in fits and starts. Beryl back at the turn of July became the earliest Category 5 hurricane on record and helped 2024 spring to its busiest season to date. Activity was sporadic thereafter, but did include Hurricane Debby’s landfall in Florida in the interim before noticeably falling off in late August.
The past 3 weeks of gangbusters activity, however, have catapulted the 2024 hurricane season not only to above average levels, but to the 8th busiest season on record through today, slingshotting past last season’s levels and even 2020, which ended as one of the most active hurricane seasons on record.
History, along with an understanding of climate factors and their interplay with hurricane science, is always a helpful guide, and it’s why we spent so much time in late August and early September in this newsletter cautioning against premature talk of a bust and making the case for a backloaded part of the hurricane season.
There’s still a lot to unravel about this hurricane season, including whether the late ramp up is part of a larger climate trend, but 2024 will without a doubt be remembered as one of the deadliest and most consequential hurricane seasons we’ve seen, a strong statement given the rash of disastrous hurricane seasons so far this century.
A pause for now but a few areas worth watching next week
Milton is no more and Leslie is headed out to sea over the central Atlantic.
A strong tropical disturbance – designated Invest 94L – is producing tropical storm conditions as it’s moving through the Cabo Verde Islands off Africa this morning. Models are hit and miss on its development odds, but since it’ll be generally tracking westward toward the easternmost Caribbean islands for later next week, we’ll want to keep an eye on it. NHC gives it a 50/50 shot of developing over the next 7 days.
Meanwhile, models show storminess increasing in the western Caribbean again for later next week. While the American GFS is wanting to spin something up in this area by next Thursday and Friday, it’s probably overselling development odds, as the European model and its ensembles are mum on development into next weekend (weekend of October 19th). As is usually the case, the answer probably lies somewhere in the middle so we’ll just keep an eye on the trends into next week.
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