Rafael re-strengthened overnight to a major Category 3 hurricane over the central Gulf of Mexico, becoming the farthest west a Category 3 or stronger hurricane has been observed during the month of November.
The unusually strong late-season hurricane is only the 8th major hurricane to form anywhere in the Atlantic basin during the month of November in the satellite era (since 1966) and only the 2nd major November hurricane ever recorded in the Gulf of Mexico.
A major hurricane over the Gulf of Mexico is typically bad news for the head of hurricane alley – with no safe escape route for hurricanes inside the land-bordered body of water – but Rafael will get stuck between steering currents and meander aimlessly over the open Gulf, weakening early next week before posing any significant threat to land.
Though Rafael isn’t expected to directly threaten land as a hurricane, the coastline from Texas to the Florida panhandle will feel its influence from large swells reaching the Gulf Coast this weekend into early next week. Dangerous surf and life-threatening rip currents are expected along area beaches, with some minor coastal flooding in low-lying areas.
Record-breaking heat in these areas for the second week of November may entice many to take to the beach this weekend for relief, but the hazardous (and much cooler) waters will make Gulf Coast beaches most enjoyable out of the water.
As we’ve detailed in previous newsletters, several factors will quickly topple Rafael next week, especially if it tries to move toward the U.S. A cold front descending into the Deep South and Florida next week could siphon off some residual tropical air from Rafael and increase rainfall ahead of the front across parts of south Louisiana and Mississippi by late Saturday and Sunday into Veterans Day.
Otherwise Rafael should lose its thunderstorms and weaken into a harmless swirl of low-level clouds over the central Gulf of Mexico by early to middle of next week.
No significant development threats behind Rafael
We continue to monitor a disturbance bringing disorganized storminess from Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands to Haiti and the Dominican Republic today.
It’ll be moving toward Cuba, the Bahamas, and South Florida for the weekend, helping to increase rain chances across South Florida for Sunday into Monday. Development odds remain low and conditions ahead don’t favor organization, especially closer to Florida.
Long-range models do show perhaps another system trying to spin up over the western Caribbean in another week or so. For now, it’s nothing to worry about for us stateside, especially given how late into the season we are.
As an aside, buyer beware when consulting the long-range American GFS model forecasts which continue to advertise scarycanes coming from the Caribbean. The long-range track record for the GFS this season in the southwestern Caribbean has been abysmal.
Other models like the European model have been far less flagrant with false alarms in the longer-range, especially in this part of the Atlantic.
