In early June, we don’t have to look very far from our coastlines to find tropical troublemakers.
Of the 59 recorded tropical systems that have formed in the first half of June, all but two – Arlene in 1999 and a short-lived tropical depression in June 2003 – have formed closer in to the U.S. in places like the western Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico, and off the southeast U.S.
Most tropical systems that form in the first part of June tend to be sloppy tropical depressions or tropical storms.
Historically, 80% of systems that form in June never become hurricanes. Only five hurricanes have been recorded in the first half of June in the modern record (since 1966) and only one of those hurricanes (Alma in 1966) reached major Category 3 status. The last hurricane to form in the first half of June was Hurricane Allison in 1995.
On average, we’d expect to see a tropical cyclone form at some point during the first two weeks of June about every other year.
Close in but not concerning
The first area of interest of the hurricane season outlined by the National Hurricane Center on Monday is in one of those preferred formation areas for early June.
But as we discussed yesterday, development odds were low at best and today the National Hurricane Center dropped any chances of development altogether as the frontal low-pressure area is expected to stay inland and remain non-tropical.
The frontal system could still bring periods of heavy rainfall to the coastal Carolinas today and tomorrow with localized flooding issues, especially in the South Carolina Lowcountry and Charleston metro where flooding issues may be worsened around periods of high tide.
Quiet into early next week
The Atlantic will otherwise stay quiet into the early part of next week, with spates of dust stretching from Africa all the way to Florida.
